It should be obvious to all and especially to Republican Party voters that no ordinary white guy is going to beat a woman in the 2016 presidential election.
For sure here are the losers:
☒ Jeb Bush
☒ John Kaisch
☒ Chris Christie
☒ Mike Huckabee
☒ Jim Gilmore
☒ George Pataki
☒ Lindsey Graham
☒ Rick Santorum
Given present demographic trends going forward, it might be hard for any white guy to ever again win the presidency of the United States.
Of the remaining GOPher major candidates — Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Donald Trump, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio — the first three are true party outsiders. Though in the party, Paul and Cruz aren't liked by the party. In effect, they are outsiders as well.
Fiorina is the only candidate who defuses the appeal of voting for the first woman, which is alike to voting for the first black man appeal that Obama had two elections ago.
Likely most voting age population has black fatigue with Obama and few are ready to put in back-to-back black men in office. That coupled with what many perceive to be a nice but naive persona and Carson is a sure loser.
Of the two candidates who the GOP establishment likely see as the Hispanic vote trumps the women vote, Cruz is disliked by the GOP establishment themselves.
Rubio lacks enough manly sex appeal to pull away females from voting for the first female. Rubio would be beaten easily by a mother knows best (Hillary has more experience) positioning along with the chance for bragging rights for having voted for the first woman president.
Even worse, likely, Rubio would fail to pull skilled, wage-earning Republican-leaning white males who aren't Hispanic/Latinos into the booths. Should Rubio be the candidate, Hillary might walk away with a landslide.
What counts is today's USA demographics. The Obama elections will serve best as a guide for the upcoming election against Hillary Clinton.
Both elections, Obama lost the white vote. Obama carried only 43% of whites vs McCain and only 39% of whites vs Romney. Obama won through racism — the female/feminist vote, the ethnic vote, the gay vote. Though from the McCain race to the Romney race, Obama lost ground with women — 56% vs 55% — and blacks — 95% Vs 93%.
Only the Hispanics — 67% vs 71% — and Asians — 62% vs 73% increased their support for Obama.
To beat Hillary, it's going to take a special candidate. That candidate needs to win under the assumption of losing 70% of Hispanic votes, 70% of Asian votes and 93% of black votes.
The key to winning elections against Democrats still is winning the white vote by a significant percent with a significant turn out. Whites still comprise 77% of the population and comprise the majority of voters.
In 2012, 77% of college-educated whites showed up. 56% voted for Romney. Only 57% of whites without college showed up. Yet, 62% voted for Romney.
That candidate needs to get whites without college degrees to show up and vote. They don't usually.
If the GOP candidate can get 10% more turn out of whites without college to show up and if that GOP candidate can get 10% more of them to vote GOP, that GOP candidate will be the next president. And this holds true even if 10% more Hispanics vote, 10% more blacks vote and 10% more Asians vote.
No ordinary white guy can could do that. Trump can. Trump is likely the only candidate who appeals to whites without college. Thus, likely Trump is the only shot a male registered Republican has at winning the presidency.
Demographics is a science which you can't argue against.
If the GOP bosses aren't careful, Trump could jump ship at the right time and create the Americans Anti-Establishment Party and in so doing, pulling the lion's share of would-be republican voters with him while leaving the establishment GOP is his wake.
Either way, the establishment GOP is a dying party. It's over. Hopefully, skilled wage-earning Americans and small businessmen Americans can awaken before it is too late.