Thursday, December 18, 2014

SPOTLIGHT TAIWAN. TRUE GDP. EWT.




The Taiwanese have experienced their first true economy growth since Q3 2013 and the first growth of size since the time betwee Q2 2009 and Q4 2010.




With 21 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Taiwan economy has grown 59.5% of the time and has shrunk 40.5% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted fifteen quarters between Q4 1993 and Q2 1997. The longest decline stretch lasted nine quarters between Q1 20111 and Q1 2013 matching an alike decline one other time.

True GDP hit a peak Q1 2008. From the peak to the True GDP low hit Q1 2014, True GDP declined -8.9% a year, falling a full -30.1% over six years.

Since the low, True GDP has grown 1.7% growing at the yearly rate of 3.4%.

After hitting a low in January 2009, True EWS has grown 18.3% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.3%. With 17 and ½ years of data, for 53.6% of the time, EWS has been up and for 46.4% of the time, EWS has down months.





After hitting a low in January 2009, True EWT has grown 17.9% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.3%. With 17 and ¾ years of data, for 47.1% of the time, EWT has been up and for 52.9% of the time, EWT has been down.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: SINGAPORE. TRUE GDP. EWS.

Singaporeans have a growing economy. With 24 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Singapore economy has grown 70.1% of the time and has shrunk 29.9% of the time. Truly, that is quite the feat.

The longest growth streak lasted twenty quarters between Q3 2003 and Q2 2008. The longest decline stretch lasted five quarters with the first time happening between Q1 2001 and Q1 2002 and with the second time happening between Q3 2010 and Q3 2010.

True GDP hit a peak Q2 2008. From the peak, True GDP declined -4.8% a year, falling a full -24.6% over five and ¾ years.

The True GDP low from the peak came Q1 2014. Since the low True GDP has grown 1.9% growing at the yearly rate of 3.8%.






After hitting a low in January 2009, True EWS has grown 18.3% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.3%. With 17 and ½ years of data, for 53.6% of the time, EWS has been up and for 46.4% of the time, EWS has down months.

ABOUT THE ASEAN


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE


ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.
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Monday, December 15, 2014

ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: VIETNAM. TRUE GDP. VNM.



Vietnamese True GDP reveals a robust economy that shows a strong tendency to keep growing. The Vietnamese economy did not seem to be affected by the U.S. and European Banking Crisis on 2008.

The Vietnamese economy hit a peak Q3 2013 of GW$15.22 billion. The economy took a breather, hitting a recent low Q1 2014 falling -7.4% falling at the rate of -14.2% to the sum of GW$1.13 billion.

Since then, True GDP has grown 3.6% growing at the yearly rate of 7.7% over two quarters.

With 20 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Vietnamese economy has grown 66.2% of the time and has shrunk 33.8% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted nine quarters between Q3 1995 and Q3 1997. The longest decline stretch lasted seven quarters between Q1 2011 and Q3 2011.

Vietnam appears to be the shining gem of ASEAN.







The Market Vectors Vietnam ETF hit a peak in Q3 2009 at GW$3.96 and hit a low in Q4 2012 of GW$1.46 having fallen -63.2% and at the yearly rate of -27.0% over a bit more than three years. Since hitting the low, the ETF has risen 7.3%, crawling at the yearly rate of 0.3%.

ABOUT THE ASEAN


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE


ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aslviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.
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ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: THAILAND. TRUE GDP. THD.



Thais have seen an uptick in True GDP of late stemming the ebb of their GDP tide.

After the Thai economy hit a low Q1 2014 from the peak Q1 2008 peak, True GDP has grown 2.3% growing at the yearly rate of 4.7% over two quarters.

With 21 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Thai economy has grown 63.1% of the time and has shrunk 36.9% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted 15 quarters between Q4 1993 and Q2 1997. The longest decline stretch lasted seven quarters between Q1 2011 and Q3 2012.

True GDP hit a peak Q1 2008. From the peak to the low, True GDP declined -7.0% a year, falling -35.3% over six years.  Since then, growth in True GDP has cut the loss to -33.9% with a yearly loss rate of -6.4%.










The iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF hit a peak in Q2 2013 at GW$8.45 and hit a low in Q1 2014 of GW$5.48 having fallen -35.2% and at the yearly rate of -43.9%. Since hitting the low, the ETF has risen 12.4%, rising at the yearly rate of 1.2%.

ABOUT THE ASEAN


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE


ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aslviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.
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ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: PHILIPPINES. TRUE GDP. EPHE.



Filipinos are booming. After the Philippine economy hit a low Q4 2011 from the peak Q1 2008 peak, True GDP has grown 24.6% growing at the yearly rate of 10.8% over 11 quarters.



With 16 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Philippine economy has grown 60% of the time and has shrunk 40% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted 16 quarters between Q2 2004 and Q1 2008. The longest decline stretch lasted six quarters between Q3 2000 and Q4 2001.

True GDP hit a peak Q1 2008. From the peak to the low, True GDP declined -12.6% a year, falling -39.8% over three and ¾ years.  Since then, growth in True GDP has cut the loss to -20.1% with a yearly loss rate of -3.7%.








ABOUT THE ASEAN


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE


ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aslviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.

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Sunday, December 14, 2014

ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: INDONESIA. TRUE GDP. EIDO.



Indonesia has been growing. With 15 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Indonesia economy has grown 59.3% of the time and has shrunk 40.7% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted eight quarters between Q4 2006 and Q3 2007. The longest decline stretch lasted seven quarters between Q3 2011 and Q1 2013.

True GDP hit a peak Q3 2010. From the peak, True GDP declined -8.0% a year, falling a full -28.3% over four years. Over that period, compared to the USA and Eurozone countries, the fall wasn't too bad.

The True GDP low from the peak came Q4 2013. Since the low True GDP has grown 5.63% growing at the yearly rate of 8.0%.









After hitting a low in January 2014, True EIDO has grown 16.72% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 1.5%. With 18.8 years of data, for 48.9% of the time, EWM has up months and for 50.7% of the time, EWM has down months.

ABOUT THE ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE 

ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.
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ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: MALAYSIA. TRUE GDP. EWM



In spite of hiccoughs, Malaysia is growth story. With 44 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Malaysian economy has grown 65.1% of the time and has shrunk 34.9% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted 21 quarters between Q2 2003 and Q2 2008. The longest decline stretch lasted 10 quarters between Q1 1984 and Q2 1986. Take notice that decline stretch happened long ago.

True GDP hit a peak Q2 2008. From the peak to the Q4 2013 low, True GDP declined -6.7% a year, falling a full -31.5% over five and ½ years. 

Since the low from the peak, True GDP has grown 3.5% growing at the yearly rate of 4.9%. However, True GDP is down 29% having fallen at the yearly rate of -5.3%.











After hitting a low in February 1997, True EWM has grown 61.4% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.5%. With 18.8 years of data, for 48.9% of the time, EWM has up months and for 50.7% of the time, EWM has down months.

Since the Q3 2007 peak, True EWM has been up half the time, in random walk fashion, growing at a scant 0.1% over 70 months of growth and 16.3 years of data.



ABOUT THE ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE 

ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.


Read more ...