Wednesday, September 16, 2015


The U.S. economy has yet to leave depression. Current dollar GDP is meaningless.

"Real" GDP is meaningless as well since to calculate it, government statisticians use an average ("the chain") of successive inflated current dollar GDPs to deflate the latest GDP. How is it possible to deflate something inflated by something else already inflated?

There are 69.8% more dollars in circulation today, August, 2015, than in June, 2008! That is what quantitative easing does. QE has papered over the ongoing losses.

Quantitative Easing means increasing negotiable bank credit in circulation — cash and checkable deposits so as to trick the public into believing the economy is growing through rising sticker prices expressed in current dollars.

Quantitative Easing works. QE has papered over the massive credit deflation undergone at banks. QE has papered over the Greatest Depression.

That is its purpose. QE is not intended to spur on an economy.

Current Dollars in Circulation from the Federal Reserve

Look at the angle of the curve from June, 2008. It started to bend toward vertical, which means growth has been moving toward infinite.

This is what US GDP looks like in True Dollars™ terms rather than bogus current dollars or the equally bogus real dollars:

My chart is the only accurate chart on US GDP produced by anyone, the earth over, as are all my GDP charts and every other chart I produce. Unless someone has a standard yardstick that can't grow or shrink, that one can't get an accurate measure.

Look at my chart closely. My chart conforms to everyone's experiences through the years precisely. No other GDP chart on earth can do that.

Because I use an invariant standard that conforms to scientific knowledge about commercial banking, my measures are accurate and reflect commercial reality. No one else on earth can make this claim, unless he or she were to copy my method.

In true terms measured in True Dollars™ rather than measured in current dollars or the equally fake "real GDP" terms — as that uses already-inflated averaged current dollar terms over successive periods as the deflator — the economy has shrunk in almost every quarter since hitting a peak in 2007.

Americans don't see this precisely because QE has papered over reality. Current dollar prices including wages are up. So Americans believe they have been living through a recovery and an advance when they have not in reality.

Americans think in current dollars. They don't think in buying power terms.
When credit falls, the economy must shrink.

The US economy has yet to leave the Greatest Depression.

I track GDP for 40 countries in True Dollars™ terms. Those 40 countries comprise 86.6% of World GDP. The world is in serious economic depression.

The top 15 countries comprise 75% of world GDP. In True Dollars™, which is the only way you can get accurate true GDP, quarter-over-quarter

• Australia is down -11.4%
• Brazil is down -8.9%
• Canada is down -4.4%
• China is down -1.0%
• France is down -9.0%
• Germany is down -8.7%
• India is down -2.1%
• Italy is down -9.3%
• Japan is down -3.6% [Japan hasn't stopped falling since 30-June 1995! It's now down almost -74% since then ]
• Mexico is down -2.9%
• Russia is down an eye-popping -39.4% owing to sanctions.
• Spain is down -8.7%
• The UK is down -7.5%
• The USA is -1.5%

The notable bright spot is Korea, up 0.4%

I'll share a link to these charts as well as my True Dollars™ price guides for ETFs, which show which ETFs are rising fastest over designated periods as soon as my server comes up. My ETF price guides are indispensable for anyone who speculates with ETFs.

As my ETF price guides are merely that, the guides do not constitute advice of any kind as to what to buy or to sell. Such decisions are the both the legal and technical responsibilities of those speculating.

That said, having my True Dollars™ ETF Price Guides likely is the closest anyone can ever get to having a crystal ball. It's like insurance so cheap that you don't need to question the pittance to acquire one.

The charts above for the USA are what the charts look like for the 40 countries I track and for which I produce GDP in True Dollars™

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