Commercial banking has been the mainstay of the economy since the mid 1800s. When bankers extend enough of their bank credit, takers produce more in hopes of earning profits. Most times, under prudent credit lending, the economy expands.
In the days of money — coined metal by weight and fineness — bank credit expansion was easier to detect as ever more bank notes would circulate from banks of issue. When prices would get pushed up quite high, prudent men knew that a bank crisis would be forthcoming.
Today, it's much harder to see such things as no one has money. Today, everyone only has cash, which is evidence of deposits in circulation, as well as deposits that can get negotiated by check or so-called electronic transfer.
When commercial bank credit is falling, there is no way the economy could possibly be expanding. And yet, true credit is falling while politicians and Federal Reserve bankers tell you an expansion is underway.
The commercial picture doesn't look good.
The consumer picture looks as bleak.
Residential realty looks bad. Likely, it's a great time to buy a house, if you can as true prices likely are quite low, historically.
In fact, the whole realty part of commercial banking is quite bad.