Thursday, December 18, 2014
SPOTLIGHT TAIWAN. TRUE GDP. EWT.
The Taiwanese have experienced their first true economy growth since Q3 2013 and the first growth of size since the time betwee Q2 2009 and Q4 2010.
With 21 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Taiwan economy has grown 59.5% of the time and has shrunk 40.5% of the time.
The longest growth streak lasted fifteen quarters between Q4 1993 and Q2 1997. The longest decline stretch lasted nine quarters between Q1 20111 and Q1 2013 matching an alike decline one other time.
True GDP hit a peak Q1 2008. From the peak to the True GDP low hit Q1 2014, True GDP declined -8.9% a year, falling a full -30.1% over six years.
Since the low, True GDP has grown 1.7% growing at the yearly rate of 3.4%.
After hitting a low in January 2009, True EWS has grown 18.3% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.3%. With 17 and ½ years of data, for 53.6% of the time, EWS has been up and for 46.4% of the time, EWS has down months.
After hitting a low in January 2009, True EWT has grown 17.9% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.3%. With 17 and ¾ years of data, for 47.1% of the time, EWT has been up and for 52.9% of the time, EWT has been down.