Sunday, February 1, 2015


Back on January 5, 2014, in STATE TAX RECEIPTS LAG TRUE GDP. IS THE RECOVERY ON OR NOT?, I said, taxes are lagging behind GDP precisely becaues profits had been lagging the two quarters of True GDP growth. And I warned,
However, unless those curves at least flatten and then swing up within the next few quarters,  it is hard to see how the two quarter positive turn in True GDP can sustain.
The month before that, I revealed what could have been the start of the USA economy advance in THE USA ECONOMY ADVANCE LIKELY HAS BEGUN AT LONG LAST.

Well now, it doesn't look as if an advance can be sustained under the present commercial state.

On Friday, January 30, 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Q4 2014 GDP data. In their release, workers of the BEA claim "real" GDP is up 2.6%.

That might be so, as "real" GDP is a concocted measure of dollar-named GDP deflated by using a past inflated GDP. In short, "real" GDP tells you nothing.

However, True GDP, which shows you reality, reveals that GDP has returned to decline mode. True GDP gets calculated by removing the effects of inflation.

Q4 2014 GDP is quite a let down considering that in Q3 2014, True GDP per industry worker was  up noticeably from a likely bottom in Durable Goods, Financial Activities and especially the Finance and Insurance sub-sector, as well as in Transportation and Warehousing, reflecting that production of property in capital had been far advancing production in wealth, which is always a good sign of a smooth running economy.

Yellen and her predecessor, Bernanke have done much to prolong the agony of the long, slow depression, the reckoning that followed the Greenspan-Bernanke Inflation Bubble, the biggest credit bubble in mankind's history. Quantitative Easing is exactly opposite of what Americans need.

Suppressing interest rates and thus cheapening credit kills the the return to capital for those with extant capital paid for with credit at higher rates borrowed upon expectation of higher prices.  This has resulted in unnecessarily lengthened, high unemployment followed by capital growth restriction and thus true wage growth impairment.

The fixed investment in capital equipment looks hideous still.

BEA workers shall force us to wait until February 27, 2015, for the second estimate for fourth quarter GDP.

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