TRUE DOLLAR JOURNAL REPORTS STELLAR 2015 OCTOBER JOBS REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2015 DATA

Over on the True Dollar Journal, I've written up a surprise summary of the 2015 October Jobs Report for September.

Check it out: STELLAR 2015 OCTOBER JOBS REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2015 LIKELY CONFIRMS RAISE IN FED FUNDS TARGET RATE

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THE SUPPOSED RECORD 94 MILLION AMERICANS NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE IS A MEANINGLESS RECORD

Recently, there has been this stupid meme going around whereby tricksters have tried to shock fools with the meaningless statistic about 94 million Americans not in the labor force. A quick googling of the phrase record not in labor force reveals a slew of search results.



First, the phrase labor force is a technical term and means the sum of those employed along with those who have looked for work in the last four weeks based on a survey conducted during the so-called reference week. So those not in the labor force are those who don't have jobs and who haven't looked for work in the last four weeks.

As I show always, numbers without context lack meaning and usefulness to describe reality. Here is reality:



So is the current percent of 37.3% far from historical norms? No. Right now, the latest reading of 37.3% is only 11.2% higher than the average from the end of July, 1986, to the end of July, 2007.

You can better believe that before World War 2, consistently, those not in the labor force as a percent of free total civilian population would have been been a far greater percentage.

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2015 SEPTEMBER EMPLOYMENT SITUATION FOR AUGUST 2015. IT'S MUCH BETTER. WILL THE FOMC RAISE THE FFR TARGET?

The latest employment situation from the Current Population Survey looks better than it has in a long time. Mainstream media report the unemployment rate (aka the competition for jobs rate) fell 5.1% from 5.3%. As the rate consists only of those who have looked for a job in the last four weeks, the measure fails to describe how many Americans are willing to work and could work.

If the Fed Res FOMC members decide based on data, then little reason exists for them to continue with their wrong-headed near zero interest rates policy. It's only been eight years of meddling by the Federal Reserve and by Congress to get the economy where it is now. Back when men debated whether or not to create the Federal Reserve, those in favor of creating the Federal Reserve claimed the Federal Reserve would shorten or even prevent altogether economic depressions. Their claims have yet to be backed by history as both the 1930s and the 2010s have proven them wrong.

Unfortunately, for these charts, key parts of the data needed for this calculation only go back to 2008. So it's hard to know if 6.2% is a good rate or a bad rate.

To learn the difference between my Jobless Rate and the BLS Unemployment Rate, read THE JOBLESS RATE, THE TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.



And the Strict Jobless Rate looks much better as well.




The number of Americans capable of work is falling.




And there are far fewer able-bodied in America sitting around doing nothing.



There are 3.7% fewer Americans being being supervised today than at the end of June, 2008.




Likely, there are millions of Americans who are not truly disabled, but merely legally disabled according to the generous rules decreed by Congress. Since the end of July, 2009, the number of supposed disabled has risen 17.5%. It seems so unlikely that before 2009, these Americans didn't know they were disabled.

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IS TRUE ECONOMIC GROWTH AT LONG LAST COMING SOON TO THE U.S. ECONOMY? MAYBE.

The pessimists seem quite down on the U.S. economy. However, these pessimists rely on nominal GDP stats and the quite dubious real GDP stats from the Census bureau.

One well-known pessimist, a brokerage firm operator also who peddles gold believes a spate of bad numbers will translate into Q2 GDP numbers lower than Q1, a new round of quantitative easing and dollar that buys less than it does now, especially against cash from other banking systems. Another well-known pessimist, a stocks salesman who is a popular financial blogger has called for a recession.



The U.S economy can't go into recession because at least through Q1 2015, the economy has been shrinking since the last growth peak of Q4 2007. Likely, many disbelieve my claim. Yet, in true terms, after removing the effects of monetary accretion, the economy has been shrinking.



At a point sometime in the near future, the shrinking is going to stop. When it does, the economy is going to take off and along with it, the prices of stocks and commodities.

We might be nearing that point given these charts.

When Americans were in true hard times, there were slightly more than nine out-of-work Americans for every American hired. Have a look.



At the peak of hard times, there were almost 13 Americans clawing for every new job opening. Now, there are about four truly unemployed Americans for everyone new job opening.



During the peak of hard times, there were about 41 Americans working under supervision for every working American who found himself or herself laid off or fired. By the end of March 2015, that had grown by more than twice as much.



As a contrarian of sorts, I'd say now is the time to look at depressed commodities like timber and steel. Likely, now is the time to look at firms and industries that have been out of favor during the great dollar-figure run-up of the S&P 500.



The last time I looked, Americans were living in great times to buy houses. Low rates plus jobs equals house buying. I'd expect new construction to take off if present employment trends hold.

I look forward to the Q2 GDP numbers. For now, I say, let's go!

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LABOR SECETARY PEREZ SPINS TALES ABOUT THE APRIL 2015 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

Workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics define the unemployment rate as the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force. Those at the BLS claim anyone can be counted as unemployed only if they meet all of the following criteria:

• the would-be worker had no employment during the reference week
• the would-be worker was available for work during that time
• the would-be worker made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week

Those at the BLS also count those who have been laid off from their jobs but who expect to be recalled at a time in an undefined near future. Also, the BLS wizards define the civilian labor force as the sum of employed and unemployed persons, that is, those persons not classified as employed or unemployed are not in the labor force.

Of course, what the BLS workers call the unemployment rate in truth is the job seekers rate. A true unemployment rate would be the ratio of the true working potential to the true free Americans. To calculate this ratio, one would need to look at the sum of recent job seekers (unemployed), those who want to work but who are not recent job seekers and those who have looked for work but not in the last four weeks in ratio to the total civilian population, which are those not in the military, not in mental hospitals and not in prisons or county jails, less those who don't work and who are disabled and are aged at least 16.

Right now, the true unemployment rate stands at 7.15% which is quite higher than the job seekers rate, aka the ESS unemployment rate as reported, 5.4%.

Today, with the release of the April 2015 Employment Situation Report, Department of Labor Secretary, Thomas E. Perez, decided to lie and distort facts as any propaganda agent would.

Perez lied when he claimed, falsely, that private-sector employment has grown for 62 consecutive months claiming it to be longest streak on record. Meanwhile, since January 1939, for which Americans have data, the longest streak of private-sector job growth has been 11 months. This streak has been matched 10 times, ending on these dates: 12/1/1942, 12/1/1945, 12/1/1955, 12/1/1965, 12/1/1966, 12/1/1968, 12/1/1984, 12/1/1987, 12/1/1993, 12/1/1994.

Since January 1939, the longest streak of private-sector job loss happened between 7/1/2008 and 3/1/2009, lasting nine months. That alone should tell you how severe the Banking Crisis of 2008 was and that you lived through the Greatest Depression.

The second longest streak of private-sector job loss is seven months. That streak has been matched three times, between 9/1/1957 and 3/1/1958, between 9/1/1974 and 3/1/1975, and most recently between 7/1/2009 and 1/1/2010, during the Obama era.

The current streak of private-sector employment growth is a scant three months. It began back in February.

Secretary Perez bragged that private-sector employment has grown 12.3 million jobs since 3/1/2010, as if Congress or Obama has anything to do with capitalists putting cash and credit at risk to produce property in pursuit of profit. 

Meanwhile, private-sector employment has grown 13.7 million net jobs since 3/1/2010. However, there were whopper job losses during that span. 

• 12/1/2010 to 1/1/2011, 2.385 million private-sector jobs were shed
• 12/1/2011 to 1/1/2012, 2.112 million private-sector jobs were shed
• 12/1/2012 and 1/1/2013, 2.351 million private-sector jobs were shed 
• 12/1/2013 and 1/1/2014, 2.311 million private-sector jobs were shed
• 12/1/2014 and 1/1/2015, 2.324 million private-sector jobs were shed 

Before the Banking Crisis of 2008, peak employment hit in Q4 2007, as 147.118 million had jobs. The low came in Q4 2009 when 137.599 million had jobs.

Since peak employment of Q4 2007, a scant 1.469 million jobs have been added. In Q4 2007, 63.12% of free Americans, age 16 and up were working . Today, the number of Americans working has dropped -5.9% to 59.37%. 

Free Americans of working age population have grown 7.44% since the peak and collapse. Meanwhile, total job growth has been lagging, having grown only 1%.

Back during the peak of Q4 2007, 50.07% of Americans held private-sector, capitalist jobs, the kind of jobs that make the economy work. Today, that number has fallen to 47.6%! Now that is scary. Less than half of the free working age population work private sector jobs.

All that said, the true unemployment picture has improved. 

And while the employment situation is much better than it was 48 months ago, it's not much better than it was three months ago or even 12 months ago, though the employment situation has bettered over the last six months.

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ALMOST 17 MILLION AMERICANS STILL NOT WORKING FOR A LIVING!

Many Americans wish they could bitch about dead end jobs they don't have right now.

So today, I read in Forbes yet another egg head economist, Bill Conerly, raving about how "total employment ... now exceeds the pre-recession level."

By "pre-recession" I assume the guy means before the Banking Crisis of 2008 or at True Peak GDP, which came at the end of Q4 2007.

Let's have a look at reality instead of Conerly's Ph.D.-in-economics fantasy.




Employment incidence of workers to working age population shows that Americans have fallen back to 1987 Reagan era employment levels.

Mind you, Employment Incidence accounts for approximately 80%  of the workers who contribute to GDP. Employment incidence reveals the ratio of jobs added or lost to total population growth of all who can work legally from an age standpoint. 

Employment incidence has fallen an eye-popping -6.1% since Peak True GDP, hit in Q4 2007. The annualized decline from the peak has run at slightly -1% a year ( -0.95%). 

From when Nixon slammed shut the gold window in August 1971, peak employment incidence hit at the end of November 1999, during the end of the Clinton Good Times. Since hitting the peak, employment incidence has fallen a jaw-dropping -10.8%, falling at a rate a bit more than three-forth's of  -1% a year (-0.79%).

If we were to assume that as many Americans who were working at the peak of the Clinton Good Times would like to work today, then there are almost 17 million Americans who want to work but who are out of work right now! There are two full New York Cities worth of American workers sitting idle! 

Here is how our projected unemployed Americans who would like to work compare to the top 15 cities of the USA by head count. 





Eleven Philadelphias sit idle every day! So too, twenty San Francicsos idle every day!

17 million Americans kicking about wanting to work is one-fifth of all Germans, one-quarter of all Brits, one-third of all Koreans, almost half of all Canadians, not quite three-fourths of all Australians and all Dutchmen. That's right, 17 million willing to work Americans constitute the entire population of the Netherlands!

With fewer workers and True Wages falling, is it any wonder that True GDP has fallen a walloping -42.8%,  falling at an annual rate of -8.9%!  



Relative to a growing population, is it any wonder why ever fewer Americans are buying cars? 

To read this chart, the lows are the better numbers. The Drive ratios compare how many Americans there are for each new car and light truck sold.



Should it surprise you that entrepreneurs running firms like Uber seek to capitalize on ever poorer Americans by creating the renting economy rather than the owning one?

So who can you thank for wrecking the economy? You can thank successive U.S. Congresses during the Bush-Obama Bad Times for crossing the Rubicon pushing True Debt to True GDP to 100% to fund unneeded wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can thank Alan Greenspan and his successor Ben Bernanke for inflation of the biggest credit bubble in mankind's history.  

Note: The data excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. 

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