Tuesday, June 23, 2015

DID THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH ON JUNE 23, 2015 AS REPORTED? IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Google News returns 122,000 hits for the search phrase: NASDAQ Composite June 23, 2015 record or all-time

So is it true? Could the NASDAQ hit a high higher than the peak of Dot Com era when every American who wanted a job held a job?

In True Dollars™, which are the only dollars that count, the NASDAQ Composite is quite far from the all-time high.



The NASDAQ Composite hit an all-time high on 3/6/2000 peaking at $1,032.37 in True Dollars™. All who lived through that time as an adult will quite remember the Dot Com mania that abounded throughout America.

Americans were flush with jobs and with cash. Truly good times had been flowing for awhile for Americans.

There is no way the NASDAQ Composite today is at a true all-time high. Americans are far from good times. Many Americans have yet to leave hard times behind.

Today's NASDAQ Composite close is down -61.8% from the all-time high and a tinge higher (1.9%) than where it marked at true peak GDP hit at the end of Q4 2007, but down -16.8% from the peak hit during the Greenspan-Bernanke Inflation Bubble, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind.

Cash in circulation is up 150.2% since the all-time high and is up 52.9% since the March 2009 NASDAQ low. In True Dollars™, the NASDAQ Composite is up 116.3% from the March 2009 low.

Along with the quality charts I share like the one above, below is the kind of quality report I will be making on offer soon to subscribers that tracks ETF trading instruments.



Read more ...

Thursday, June 4, 2015

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME EACH AMERICAN PLUNGES -19.4% BELOW WHAT IT WAS IN 1959. YOU ARE LIVING IN AMERICANS' GREATEST DEPRESSION


Because bankers failed to collect key banking data before 1959, there is no way to put into True Dollars™, the state of affairs before the first quarter of 1959. Otherwise, it might be quite shocking to see exactly to where today compares.



Per capital DPI has fallen -47.02% from the Q1 2008 peak of $7678.40 each American age 16 or over.



And the graph of personal income in True Dollars™ mirrors GDP without surprise. No one should expect the U.S. economy to grow when credit priced in True Dollars has fallen.





Americans are living through the consequences of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.



And though personal unspent profit ("saving") rate is more than double what it measured at Q2 2005, Americans hardly save as they did between 1959 and 1975.

It's hard to get capital growth and thus growth in wages when savings are weak and working-age immigration continues to swell the ranks of the working-age population.



The U.S. Congress has upped their tax collection in spite of falling personal income and falling per capita personal income.



This chart shocks the eyes and mind. States' legislators have grown their respective state governments for years. Perhaps more than Congress, the growth of state governments explains why living in America moves toward totalitarianism every year.

Without doubt, salaries and pensions for state government workers have grown unreasonably generous over many years.





Americans might have lived it right in the 1950s.

Read more ...

Friday, May 8, 2015

LABOR SECETARY PEREZ SPINS TALES ABOUT THE APRIL 2015 EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

Workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics define the unemployment rate as the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force. Those at the BLS claim anyone can be counted as unemployed only if they meet all of the following criteria:
  • the would-be worker had no employment during the reference week
  • the would-be worker was available for work during that time
  • the would-be worker made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week
Those at the BLS also count those who have been laid off from their jobs but who expect to be recalled at a time in an undefined near future. Also, the BLS wizards define the civilian labor force as the sum of employed and unemployed persons, that is, those persons not classified as employed or unemployed are not in the labor force.

Of course, what the BLS workers call the unemployment rate in truth is the job seekers rate. A true unemployment rate would be the ratio of the true working potential to the true free Americans. To calculate this ratio, one would need to look at the sum of recent job seekers (unemployed), those who want to work but who are not recent job seekers and those who have looked for work but not in the last four weeks in ratio to the total civilian population, which are those not in the military, not in mental hospitals and not in prisons or county jails, less those who don't work and who are disabled and are aged at least 16.

Right now, the true unemployment rate stands at 7.15% which is quite higher than the job seekers rate, aka the ESS unemployment rate as reported, 5.4%.

Today, with the release of the April 2015 Employment Situation Report, Department of Labor Secretary, Thomas E. Perez, decided to lie and distort facts as any propaganda agent would.

Perez lied when he claimed, falsely, that private-sector employment has grown for 62 consecutive months claiming it to be longest streak on record. Meanwhile, since January 1939, for which Americans have data, the longest streak of private-sector job growth has been 11 months. This streak has been matched 10 times, ending on these dates: 12/1/1942, 12/1/1945, 12/1/1955, 12/1/1965, 12/1/1966, 12/1/1968, 12/1/1984, 12/1/1987, 12/1/1993, 12/1/1994.

Since January 1939, the longest streak of private-sector job loss happened between 7/1/2008 and 3/1/2009, lasting nine months. That alone should tell you how severe the Banking Crisis of 2008 was and that you lived through the Greatest Depression.

The second longest streak of private-sector job loss is seven months. That streak has been matched three times, between 9/1/1957 and 3/1/1958, between 9/1/1974 and 3/1/1975, and most recently between 7/1/2009 and 1/1/2010, during the Obama era.

The current streak of private-sector employment growth is a scant three months. It began back in February.

Secretary Perez bragged that private-sector employment has grown 12.3 million jobs since 3/1/2010, as if Congress or Obama has anything to do with capitalists putting cash and credit at risk to produce property in pursuit of profit. 

Meanwhile, private-sector employment has grown 13.7 million net jobs since 3/1/2010. However, there were whopper job losses during that span. 
  • 12/1/2010 to 1/1/2011, 2.385 million private-sector jobs were shed
  • 12/1/2011 to 1/1/2012, 2.112 million private-sector jobs were shed
  • 12/1/2012 and 1/1/2013, 2.351 million private-sector jobs were shed 
  • 12/1/2013 and 1/1/2014, 2.311 million private-sector jobs were shed
  • 12/1/2014 and 1/1/2015, 2.324 million private-sector jobs were shed 
Before the Banking Crisis of 2008, peak employment hit in Q4 2007, as 147.118 million had jobs. The low came in Q4 2009 when 137.599 million had jobs.

Since peak employment of Q4 2007, a scant 1.469 million jobs have been added. In Q4 2007, 63.12% of free Americans, age 16 and up were working . Today, the number of Americans working has dropped -5.9% to 59.37%. 

Free Americans of working age population have grown 7.44% since the peak and collapse. Meanwhile, total job growth has been lagging, having grown only 1%.

Back during the peak of Q4 2007, 50.07% of Americans held private-sector, capitalist jobs, the kind of jobs that make the economy work. Today, that number has fallen to 47.6%! Now that is scary. Less than half of the free working age population work private sector jobs.





All that said, the true unemployment picture has improved. 



And while the employment situation is much better than it was 48 months ago, it's not much better than it was three months ago or even 12 months ago, though the employment situation has bettered over the last six months.

Read more ...

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

FEWER MILES DRIVEN FOR EACH AMERICAN. THE ECONOMY IS DRIVING IN THE SLOW LANE WITH ITS FLASHERS ON.



Workers at the Federal Reserve give you this chart every month. If you relied on
this chart, you would think it reveals something positive. After all, it shows that vehicle miles driven are near an all-time high.



However, the chart lacks context. As I teach always, without context, explanation is meaningless.

It is not the total miles that count, but the total miles each American 16 and older that counts.





Driving peaked between 2001 and 2005.




Read more ...

Monday, May 4, 2015

COMMERCIAL BANK CREDIT FALLING STILL. REPORTS OF A US ECONOMY EXPANSION ARE WRONG.

Commercial banking has been the mainstay of the economy since the mid 1800s. When bankers extend enough of their bank credit, takers produce more in hopes of earning profits. Most times, under prudent credit lending, the economy expands.

In the days of money — coined metal by weight and fineness — bank credit expansion was easier to detect as ever more bank notes would circulate from banks of issue. When prices would get pushed up quite high, prudent men knew that a bank crisis would be forthcoming.

Today, it's much harder to see such things as no one has money. Today, everyone only has cash, which is evidence of deposits in circulation, as well as deposits that can get negotiated by check or so-called electronic transfer.

When commercial bank credit is falling, there is no way the economy could possibly be expanding. And yet, true credit is falling while politicians and Federal Reserve bankers tell you an expansion is underway.




The commercial picture doesn't look good.






The consumer picture looks as bleak.





Residential realty looks bad. Likely, it's a great time to buy a house, if you can as true prices likely are quite low, historically.


In fact, the whole realty part of commercial banking is quite bad.




Read more ...

AMERICANS LIVE IN THE GREATEST DEPRESSION STILL. NO RECOVERY. NO EXPANSION. IT'S ALL BEEN A PACK OF LIES.

For those who read Bizarro Theater, I ask you to spread the word about this important work.



Back on April 14, 2015, I released the charts from the U.S. Census Bureau on Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for March 2015 adjusted for inflation (see: ADVANCE RETAIL SALES SHOW EIGHT YEARS OF LIES. WHAT RECOVERY? DEPRESSIONS NEVER LASTED THIS LONG WHEN AMERICANS HAD MONEY.)

In chart after chart, you see the true picture of retail. There isn't a sector of retail that has not experienced a decline in sales from peaks happening between Q4 2007 and Q3 2008. Some sectors like grocery retailers and food and beverage retailers hit their respective peaks in Q4 2000.

Cars, other vehicles and parts sales for such hit a peak way back in Q4 2001. It should not surprise then why car makers begged for bailouts.

And everywhere else you can look from manufacturers' new orders and personal income to savings and investment, you see the same pattern of downward curves. In short, the economy has been shrinking for years in spite of the lies from Janet Yellen, her predecessor Ben Bernanke, President Obama and many TV blabber heads.

The Federal Reserve System and its workers have failed consistently at managing the economy. They cannot do it. 

What execs at the Federal Reserve System are successful at doing is colluding with successive U.S. Congresses to keep Americans from agitating for a return to money — coined metal by weight and fineness. Having legal tender bank notes and checkable deposits as the only means of debt settlement to U.S. Congress keeps banking going in spite of the needs of Americans.

First up is GDP. True GDP is down 2.1% from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015.



Here is the state of acquiring capital for production. If the economy were growing, this curve should be sloping upward to the right.




Here is what manufacturing looks like.














And all of those charts and many more that will be published with frequency and made available free to those who subscribe to various priced-products all show the same downward trend.

Spending by Americans constitutes more than 2/3's of the economy. Americans true disposable income keeps falling.







Therefore Americans can't spend.



And enterprisers can't earn.









And few can save on falling true incomes.





And few can profit on falling incomes.



But U.S Congress' Obamacare is increasing Medicaid income. And that readers, is the crowning achievement of six years of Obama and his congresses.

Read more ...