Thursday, April 2, 2015

AMERICAN CORPORATE PROFITS STILL IN DECLINE AND STILL TOO HIGH. SEE THE TRUE PICTURE.

Many continue to tout what ought to be considered a smoke-and-mirrors, propaganda recovery for the American economy.

Today, I give you the true picture of corporate profits. First, this is the picture the Federal Reserve gives you. They report corporate profits in dollars.



And now, I give you the true picture. This is what corporate profits look like after deflating.



Anyone whose been living their adulthood years since the 1990s knows this picture corresponds to their reality while the Fed Res dollars picture tells nothing. Likewise, those were in their primes between 1960 and 1970 knows the truth of my picture. The same holds true for those who were in their primes in the 1980s.

To be sure, whenever True Corporate Profits have been rising, Americans have lived better. This aspect of reality contradicts the false preaching of socialism revivalists like Thomas Piketty.

All-time peak True Corporate Profits hit Q2 2006, leading True Peak GDP and True Peak Credit, which Q4 2007.

It looks like True Corporate Profits are following the trajectory of True GDP though not the rate of decline. Corporate profits are still too high relative to the long run True Average of US$88.60 billion, 1.63 times higher than that average.




So how well does True S&P 500 correspond True Corporate Profits and GDP? Keep in mind that in any year for awhile now, about 45% of revenues for the S&P 500 firms get earned outside the USA.



As it is, a couple of weeks back, I showed you the true picture on SNAP in YELLEN. THE FED, THE LIES, THE FAKE RECOVERY. 46 MILLION NEEDY AMERICANS STILL NEED FOOD STAMPS. How can anyone believe there ever has been a recovery after the collapse of the Greenspan-Bernanke Inflation Bubble, the largest credit bubble in the history of mankind?


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Thursday, August 7, 2014

AMERICANS LIVING IN FOREIGN LANDS SHOULD TELL CONGRESS TO FACTA-OFF.

So today, Dylan Griffiths of Bloomberg reported  the number of Americans renouncing U.S. citizenship stayed near an all-time high in the first half of 2014 before FACTA rules came into force. Between January and June, 1,577 once U.S. citizens renounced their citizenship to U.S. embassy officials.



Since July 1, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act has been in full effect. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act decrees that U.S. citizens who live outside the USA to report their financial accounts held outside the USA to the IRS on behalf of Congress. Bizarrely, the law also requires foreign financial institutions to report to the IRS about their customers who are U.S. citizens.

NO ONE who earns income outside the borders of the fifty states which comprise the USA should pay taxes to the U.S. Congress. No one.

Disgustingly, Congress believes they are owed an unearned share of profits of U.S. citizens living elsewhere in other countries like Canada and Australia. It's neither moral nor legally justifiable for Congress to demand taxes from anyone earning income outside the USA. Greedy Congress "men" yearn for this undeserved tax revenue so they can increase the balance owed on their giant-sized Congressional debt credit card, wrongly parroted by most as the "national debt" or "federal debt".

When the authors of the second constitution wrote rules giving Congress the capacity, authority and thus power to lay and collect taxes, those authors wrote their taxation design in Article 1, sections 2, 8 and 9. Enough of the delegates from the various states ratified the constitution enshrining that power into law.

In Article I, Section 2, the authors wrote,

"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons."

Specifically, Article 1, Section 8 states,

"The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;"

In Article I, Section 9, the authors wrote,

"No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census of Enumeration herein before directed to be taken."

and

"No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State."

So the authors' made explicit their design:
  1. Direct taxes shall be apportioned among the several states.
  2. The congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes.
  3. Direct taxes shall be apportioned by the results of the census.
  4. No export taxes of any kind.
By apportionment, the ratifiers agreed that Congress would be restricted to collecting direct taxes, such as an income tax, based on the percentage of each states' population to the total for the USA. So, if New Yorkers had 10% of the population of the USA, and if Congress levied an income tax, New Yorkers had to pay 10% of all income taxes laid by Congress.

In effect, apportionment acted as a block against Congresses from levying income taxes.  Later, after the 1895 U.S. Supreme Court declared a  federal income tax unconstitutional because it violated this rule of apportionment in Pollock v. Farmer’s Loan & Trust, another Congress decided that apportionment acted as shackles against them, so they passed the 16th Amendment, in which they wrote,

"The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration."

Interestingly, before the 16th amendment, the Constitution had no mention of income.

Samuel Johnson, the devout Anglican lexicographer first published his A Dictionary of the English Language in 1755. Looking at the third edition, published in 1768 before the writing of the second constitution as well as the tenth edition published in 1792 soon after the writing of the second constitution, we can come to see how the founders thought of income.

Both th 1768 edition and the 1792 edition have revenue and income as synonyms, having an head entries for each word, revenue and income. Both words meant annual profits received from lands or other funds as well as the produce of anything.

Both th 1768 edition and the 1792 edition have revenue as a synonym for the head entry rent, specifcally defining the word rent as annual payment; the money paid for anything held of another.

Both th 1768 edition and the 1792 edition have definition for produce. Produce meant  product; that which yields or brings. The secondary definition for produce is amount; profit; gain; emergent sum or quantity.

Both the 1768 edition and the 1792 edition have definition for yield. Yield meant to produce; to give in return for cultivation or labor.

So those who drafted and ratified the second constitution had in mind earnings from land whether crop sales or rent, as well as interest from loans as the source of taxes. Never did the so-called founders or framers envision taxing anyone's labor income.

After 1895, Congress demonstrated by action they needed to define income as more than rent and interest, hence, this is why the 16th amendment includes the phrase "from whatever source." Further Congress demonstrated the need to rid itself of the pesky apportionment rule, hence the phrase, "without apportionment among the several States."

Yet, it is quite clear that in the second constitution, the ratifiers authorized taxation only with respect to the states and the Congress which drafted the 16th failed to expand taxation beyond states.

Thus, IRS rules regarding taxation of Americans as U.S. citizens living outside the USA and FACTA are quite unconstitutional. In short, Congress lacks authority to levy taxes upon anyone outside the territory of the USA and specifically the states.

If Congress had that authority, the Constitution would contain something along the lines of what would be construed as absurdity by everyone, e.g.,

The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, without regard to any census or enumeration, without regard to citizenship or domicile, upon anyone living the earth over.

Congress needs a geography lesson. No one living in the 193 U.N. member countries, nor living in the 206 sovereign countries, nor those living in the U.S. possessions of American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the free association countries of the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau owes Congress a penny, much less a dime.

There is no constitutional basis for Congress to claim the right of taxation neither on U.S. citizens living outside the USA nor upon foreigners wherever they live the earth over, except within the boundaries of the actual fifty states that constitute the USA.

That successive Congresses are so brazen to seek taxes from U.S. citizens earning income abroad and that many idiotic Americans support them in their Ahab quest shows the world how far Americans have fallen. Americans have wandered far from the path of the right way.



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Monday, June 30, 2014

WHO NEEDS A CAR AND A 747 WHEN YOU CAN'T BUY A GALLON OF GAS?





So yesterday, a dialogue of sorts opened up between Tim Worstall of Forbes as well as the Adam Smith Institute and myself. Forbes published a piece of work by Worstall in which Worstall makes these claims about gasoline prices in America:

  • "Futures speculation doesn't change the price of gasoline one whit"
  • Americans do not set the price of gasoline in the USA
  • The global balance of supply sets the price of gasoline in the USA 
  • Futures trading does not affect the price of physical commodities
  • David Ricardo rendered an Iron Law of One Price 
Worstall addressed me and said this bit of foolery,


"[A]t the more general level gasoline prices are set by the international price of crude oil. If this were not true then gas prices would not move in lock step with that price of international crude. Given that they do therefore they must be so influenced...There are significant gasoline exports from the US: so the market is so integrated."

Worstall's beliefs are quite absurd. Worstall believes that crude oil prices set the price of gasoline. Worstall tries to defend the false belief that input prices set output prices. In so doing, Worstall expresses the fallacy that costs set price.

It was Worstall's beloved David Ricardo who is well-known for having started that fallacy. It is Karl Marx who is well-known for perpetuating that fallacy in is his foolish “Labor Theory of Value”.

If it were true that crude set gasoline, that is, if the fallacy of costs set price were true, then why do refiners go out of business? Why do retailers go out of business?  Why wouldn’t businessmen merely charge costs to avoid bankruptcy? Why wouldn’t businessmen merely raise prices at will to cover increasing costs to avoid bankruptcy?

Crude oil prices do not set gasoline prices, ever. Gasoline prices for gasoline bought by retailers are set by futures markets players. To believe anything else is to reveal profound confusion on the matter.

Futures speculation sets prices of refined gasoline purchased by retailers. At the delivery date of a futures contract, someone must take physical delivery of that refined gasoline at the settlement price of the contract.

The entire purpose of futures speculation is to set prices of commodities. In so doing, futures markets players keep the flow of gasoline to retailers both in times of glut and in times of shortage.

Speculation into graded contracts creates a steady, active market for property of all kinds without respect to on-the-spot winning bids for what is on offer at any moment. The purpose of organized futures speculation is to give rise to consistent profit from transmuting property as capital into property as wealth under efficiency.

Gasoline retailers are price takers of the gasoline price set by futures markets players. Oil refined into gasoline is the product they sell at retail. Gasoline retailers are retailers the same as supermarket operators who sell milk, eggs, bread, meat.

All prices adhere to the one and only true law that governs all of commerce — the Law of Prices. The Law of Prices holds the winning bids of purchase and sale in the face of what is on offer sets the price.

It is drivers alone who buy gasoline who set the retail price from their winning bids.  Once futures players set the price of gasoline for retailers, retailers try to make a go of it by accepting prices set by drivers who buy gasoline.

The whole trick of business is producing so that one can adhere to the Axiom of Profit on given prices set by winning bidders. The Axiom of Profit holds the sum of sales on prices set by winning bidders must at least equal the cost of production, otherwise the seller goes to ruin.

If drivers drive less, buying many thousands fewer gallons of gasoline, retailers shall be forced to accept lower winning bids for what they have on offer.  For some, owing to inefficiency, they shall sell at a loss and get forced into bankruptcy. That is the great Axiom of Profit in action.

In 1994, there were 202,800 retail sites for the sales of gasoline. In 2012, that number had fallen to 156,065. The total number of sites has fallen -29.9% falling at a rate of -1.4% a year.

Thus, it can be seen that between 1994 and 2012, many retailers could not make a go of it profitably on extant prices for gasoline set by futures speculators. Therefore, these unprofitable retailers exited the field.

Worstall is quite wrong about all of it, as usual from my experiences reading his work. Perhaps Worstall should find another occupation as he seems to be wrong, consistently on all matters of commerce.

Reality thoroughly contradicts Worstall. As to prices of gasoline, the EIA reports prices in the USA differ by region. As well, Bloomberg reports prices for gasoline differ by country. Thus, it can be seen there is no fictitious global balance of supply and demand that sets the price of gasoline in the USA as Worstall so wrongly believes.

Further, imports of refined gasoline can come into the USA profitably only if outlays to refine elsewhere are low enough such that when combined with transport outlays, foreign producers can at least break even on prices set here in various regions of the USA. As can be seen here by PADD (Petroleum Administrative Defense Districts) region, most foreign exporters of crude to Americans do not also export gasoline likely because it is not profitable to do so.

David Ricardo never wrote about an “iron law of one price.” Germans academicians stuck Ricardo with the phrase, “the Iron Law” and they did so because Ricardo had written something about wages only and not other prices.

Specifically, Ricardo claimed there is a tendency for population to rise as soon as wages would rise above bare necessaries to sustain living thus. This thought became known as the "Iron Law of Wages."

Worstall tries to make an appeal to authority by mentioning Bank of Sweden laureate, Paul Krugman. According to Worstall, Krugman claims futures trading doesn’t affect the price of commodities.

Krugman is an expert in academic economics. However, Krugman appears not to know anything about commerce.  Like Worstall, Krugman is a shop-talker and not a man who deals in profit and loss from selling stuff. Krugman works at think tanks and he teaches.


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