NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES FOR APRIL 2015 SHOWS FULL RECOVERY IS STILL A WAYS OFF. NEW HOUSES SELLING AT 34% DISCOUNT ON AVERAGE

Back on May 19, I showed how the trend in new residential construction looks good. However, I cautioned that Americans have a long way to go until we have a solid economy with most Americans standing upon sound footing. It's likely, residential construction is two to three years away from having recovered.



Today, the Bureau of the Census released the latest New Residential Sales report for April, 2015.







True prices continue to fall reflecting the true state of credit in the USA. Average true prices as calculated in True Dollars™ are now lower than the low true prices hit during the early Clinton years after Clinton inherited the mess from the elder George H.W. Bush.

New houses sell at a 34% discount to the average price calculated from 1963 through 2001.



True median prices are worse today than during the early days of Richard Nixon. New house prices sell at a 29% discount to the average median sales price.



Builders' confidence reveals mixed signals.



Yet, builders seem to be speculating wildly still.






The road to full recovery is a long, hard one.

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CRAWLING FROM THE WRECKAGE INTO A BRAND NEW CAR, SLOWLY. AMERICAN CAR BUYING HAS COME BACK MUCH BUT NEEDS TO COME MORE.

Between the start of 1976 through the end of 2007, which coincides with peak True GDP and peak True Credit from the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind, there were 16.1 Free Americans age 16 and older for every new car sold in America. By Free Americans, I mean Americans living in the USA, not in prison and not institutionalized. The average over the last 6 months is still 1.18 times higher at 18.9 Free Americans for every new car sold.

The picture looks a bit better for Free Americans 20 to 54. From the start of 1976 through 2007, there were 10.4 Free Americans age 16 and older for every new car sold in America. Over the last six months, there were 11.1 Free Americans. 20 to 54, for every new car sold.

Until that long run average is hit, and stays steady, no one should claim the economy has recovered. As it is, True GDP keeps falling along with everything else.

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