A poll for the Sunday Times declares that 51% of Scottish voters plan to vote for their independence from English dominance. This is the first time Yes voters have taken the lead since polling began. Sky News reports No voters lost a a 22-point lead within the past month.
Those seeking to maintain English sovereignty over the Scots desperately have taken to using ex-soccer players to pitch a no vote.
EU parliamentarians have tried to scare the Scots with the fear that a sovereign Scotland could get forced to wait five years before getting back into the EU. Scots should ignore that fear mongering and sign unilateral trade deals with the Norwegians, the Icelanders and yes, the English.
As I say always in such matters, it's not so much about territory. It's about people. The political establishment hates losing people because they hate losing the ability to control property of others and thus the ability to scoop up taxes, which are an unearned share of profits taken by force if necessary.
Englanders produce 85% of UK GDP. Scots produce 9%. No one has produced a study, much less a valid one, showing what part of England GDP arises from Scots and what part of Scotland GDP arises from the English.
The downside for Scots is a push by Scots to have a bigger, socialist state. Likely, the wrong Scotsmen would come to power and run into the ground an independent Scotland.
A recurrent theme expressed by likely YES voters in reporting is their anger of National Health Service (NHS) welfare spending cuts. Scots seem bent on more socialism and more political involvement in their lives and thus a weaker economy with less freedom for each man and each woman.
The Washington Post reports that if Britain were a U.S. state, it would be the second-poorest, behind Alabama and before Mississippi. The Guardian reports that Scots GDP per head is $2,980 higher than British. Likely, the poorer Northern Irish, the Welsh, and every Englishman not living in London or South East are pulling down the British GDP per cap relative to Scots GDP per cap.
Should the Scots leave the UK, the EU overlords claim that action automatically kicks out the Scots from the EU. A Scots exit from the EU could mean a British exit from the EU. Together, both might be the tipping point for other exits.
Even if the Scots secede, the Scots, the English, the Welsh and Northern Irish have good reason to enter into a mutual defense union along with an open trade agreement as opposed to managed trade hiding under the rubric of "Free Trade Agreement". However, Scots would do better if they had their own banking system with their own cash.
Unfortunately, Scots have expressed the desire to remain in the British banking system with the British pound as their cash. Thus, Scots won't get the most important benefit from secession. In fact, without a standalone banking system, Scots won't gain true secession.
Regardless of the outcome, Brits ought to exit the European Union. Instead, Brits ought to join the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), gaining all of the benefits of harmonized trade with other Europeans without the loss of sovereignty.
And considering the relative per capita income of the British, perhaps Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland should dissolve the United Kingdom and become states of the United States.
Scots hold their independence referendum on Thursday, September 18, 2014.