Back in March 2009, former commercial banker cheerleader-in-chief, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke sat before the cameras of the propaganda arm of the establishment, the CBS Television show 60 Minutes. Looking into the cameras, Bernanke said, "I think all of our efforts, so far, have produced results...And I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets and as some confidence begins to come back that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back...I do. I do see green shoots."
Some mocked Bernanke, but green shoots came. Those green shoots sprouted for three-fourths of a year between Q3 2009 and Q1 2010 with the economy growing at a true rate of 1.4% yearly. Before that moment, between Q4 2007 and Q3 2009, the economy had shrunk -19.2%, shrinking at a rate of -10.1% annually.
Then, those green shoots were trampled under foot. Between Q1 2010 and Q2 2010, the economy shrank -1.1%, effectively wiping out all of that green shoot growth as it shrank at a rate of -2.1%. On the heels of the quick trampling, the economy bounced back momentarily between Q2 2010 and Q3 2010, growing a scant 1.0% and at the annual rate of 2.0%.
And then came another big drop in the economy. Between the three years of Q3 2010 and Q2 2013, the economy shrank a massive -25.4%, shrinking at the yearly rate of -9.3%.
The economy saw a short-lived, half-year 1.5% growth between Q2 2013 and Q3 2013, growing at a yearly of 3.0%. This is likely why Obama took to bragging about his interference in commercial matters.
Since Q3 2013 until now, Q3 2014, the economy has shrank -6.9%, shrinking at a yearly rate of -5.6%.
Bernanke was chairman of the Federal Reserve when both peak true bank credit and peak true GDP hit, inflation to which he and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan failed to see. And then the collapse came when that peak credit inflation led to panic and crisis.
Between Q4 2007 until now, the economy has shriveled by a whopping -42.5%, shriveling up at the yearly rate of -7.6%. This shrinking has brought Americans back to a President Ford era economy when True GDP came in at $1,369.95 trillion annualized at the end of Q3 1975 and $1,407.60 trillion annualized at the end of Q4 1975.
Yet, there is a glimmer of hope. Q2 2014 True GDP tallied to $1,395.79 trillion annualized and Q3 2014 True GDP tallied to $1,396.56 trillion annualized.
Rather than the earlier stalled recoveries, this one might be legit. Seeing True GDP stabilize might be a sign of a flattening bottom. And while the economy could chug along for a long time at this level, always there is hope for growth from a base.
It seems so unlikely for the economy to shrink much more than it has. At this point, I'd settle for a Reagan-era peak True GDP of $1,740.06 trillion annualized hit back in Q4 1984. Besides, I liked the 80s.
To live between a rock and a hard place
In between time
Cruising in prime time
Soaking up the cathode rays
To live between the wars in our time
Living in real time
Holding the good time
Holding on to yesterdays
You know how that rabbit feels
Going under your speeding wheels
Bright images flashing by
Like windshields towards a fly
Frozen in the fatal climb
But the wheels of time
Just pass you by
Wheels can take you around
Wheels can cut you down
We can go from boom to bust
From dreams to a bowl of dust
We can fall from rockets' red glare
Down to "Brother can you spare..."
And another lost generation
It slips between your hands like water
This living in real time
A dizzying lifetime
Reeling by on celluloid
Struck between the eyes
By the big-time world
Walking uneasy streets
Hiding beneath the sheets
Got to try and fill the void
And here is your 1984 bonus.