Friday, August 28, 2015

U.S. PROPAGANDA ROLLS ONWARD. Q2 2015 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME SHRANK AT THE ANNUAL RATE OF -2%

Yesterday's, pro-government workers at the Bureau of Economic Analysis promoted their fiction that "real" GDP is now growing at the annual rate of 3.7% when in truth, the economy shrank -1.5% (see: Q2 2015 GDP FIRST REVISION. THE FICTION OF 3.7% "REAL" ANNUAL GDP GROWTH), the story for individuals gets even worse.


Personal income shrank at the annual rate of -1.9% as measured in the second quarter


Of those who work for a living, the hardest hit have been shopkeepers, restaurateurs and other proprietors whose income ex-inventory and capital depreciation shrank at the rate of -2.3%. The next hardest hit have been wage-earning workers whose compensation shrank at the annual rate of -2.2%.



Of everything, unemployment insurance payouts have shrunk the fastest, falling at the annual rate of -8.1%.

Likely, for those who are lucky enough to stumble upon my work, there are some, maybe even many, who doubt my True Dollar™ method. Owing to cognitive dissonance, they feel the need to defend the lies they accept from politicians, agents of Congress, academics and news media talking heads.

That doesn't bother me whatsoever. My graphs do the ultimate talking. My graphs consistently line up with reality, the reality of everyone's experiences.  Reality never lines up with the claims made by agents of Congress like those of the BEA and agents of the President along with the data and charts they present.

If you look at the Personal Rental Income, and if you thought about what happened after the peak of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind, you would expect rental income to go up as millions of Americans defaulted on their mortgages and reverted to living in rentals. My chart shows that exactly.



Sometimes, confusion hits many because they see that welfare doled by Congress has fallen. They would expect such welfare to have risen during tougher times. In current dollars, that welfare spending rose, but in True Dollars™, that spending fell. Why welfare collectees didn't notice because True Dollars™ prices for the things they buy, like food, have fallen at a faster rate.



If you look at the Unemployment Insurance Income chart, and if you thought about what happened after the peak of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind, you would expect unemployment income to go up as millions of Americans found themselves out of work. My chart shows that exactly.  Now that claims have been exhausted, payouts for unemployment insurance have fallen precisely because there are few left who qualify to make claim for benefits. My chart shows that exactly as well.



These Medicare and Medicaid income charts match reality as well.





You should tell all your family, friends and co-workers about Bizarro Theater. You should stop listening to the silliness propagated by academicians, politicians and those who work in financial news media.

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Sunday, June 7, 2015

THE ECONOMY IS DRIVING INTO A DEEP DITCH. CENTRAL BANKERS NO LONG UNDERSTAND CAPITALISM. LEGISLATORS NEVER DID.

For every quarter, the minions at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, release data that supports an accounting known as the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). NIPA data contains much data including the all-important GDP data.



Part of NIPA is Table 7.2.5.B., the Motor Vehicle Output table, which contains data about the state of automobile manufacturing and selling in the USA. Those with authority must believe that motor vehicle manufacturing and selling are such weighty matters when it comes to the economy that specific statistics must be gathered and collated regarding these activities.

From no one else on the Internet and likely worldwide can you get what I give you in these charts — the current dollar data fixed in True Dollars™. In chart after chart I have presented elsewhere in my work, once you see dollar data in True Dollars, you see how the charts exactly correlate with reality, with what Americans experience daily in their commercial living.

Academician economists rely upon an error-filled method of deflating current inflated prices using a base of past inflated prices. Anyone with good sense can see right away that method is wrong. Using previously inflated prices as the means to deflate current inflated prices fails to deflate anything.

While I have access to 45 charts generated from the NIPA Motor Vehicle Output data, I shall share with you a few of the key ones. Using my charts you can tell exactly where the economy has been and where it is going.

First up is the master chart, the Motor Vehicle Total Output chart.




Even before the September 11, 2001, calamity that brought down the Twin Towers, the economy was in decline. The foregoing chart shows that and corresponds with the GDP chart.





The sum of automobile output is down -10% from Q1 1959!



Americans haven't seen lows in final sales of motor vehicles since 1970.



Private fixed investment in new trucks is down -43.5% from the all-time peak hit Q3 1999. That said, it's up 77% from the Q4 2008 bottom.



After the dead cat bounce to Q3 2010, final sales of motor vehicles to those residing in the USA continues to fall, having fallen -12.8% since.



The sum of domestic output of new cars is -25.1% below the Q1 1959 sum!



And here come the charts that shock the mind.



Personal spending on autos is down -71% from the Q3 1998 all-time peak. Americans spend as much on cars today as Americans did in 1959!



Personal spending on trucks is down -55.8 from the Q3 2001 peak.



And here is a huge eye-opener. On a per capita basis, Americans, 16 and older, spend -15.6% less on cars than Americans did in the beginning of 1959.







Elsewhere I have written how Quantitative Easing has wrecked the return to extant capital and was causal for a crazed amount of true unemployment. As well, as long as legislators of Congress pursue a policy of working-age immigration double-digit growth rates, enterprises will be hard pressed to gain increasing returns to capital. Merely, they will employ more workers at ever lower wages.









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