Sunday, February 21, 2016

AMERICANS ARE FED UP! THE TRUMP REVOLUTION IS ON!

This was such an easy call from the beginning. Margaret Thatcher called it for me a long time ago. Watch Thatcher talk about conviction vs consensus to know why Trump has it.

✓ A BRILLIANT LADY AND WHY DONALD TRUMP IS MOST POPULAR WITH AMERICANS


Here are a collection of links from Bizarro Theater since the beginning of 2015. Anyone who read me consistently could see why the Trump Revolution could happen.

Working-class Americans are Done with Globalization:

✘ bad trade deals that send manufacturing jobs to Mexico and China because  the return to capital at home is killed for the small factory owner
✘  the loss of small and medium sized employers

Working-class Americans are Done with Immigration:

✘ immigration, especially third world (non-white) immigration as well as illegal immigration
✘ the big lie that illegals take the jobs Americans won't do


Working-class Americans are Done with Mohammadans — Americans See Too Much Evidence: 9/11, Fort Hood, San Bernardino, the horde in Europe, ISIS, Obama



Working-class Americans are Done with Obama:


(White) Americans are Done with Social(ist) Liberal Political Correctness and Pandering to Minorities:


✘ black lives matter
✘ massive amounts of black crime — gun murders — as the excuse to violate the second amendment
✘ safe spaces and ridiculous feminism
✘ quotas for employment and college admissions
✘ extra welfare for skin-colored people
✘ rampant government corruption with government workers now getting paid more than private sector workers




Working-class Americans are Done with The Gay War:

✘ the big gay army of homosexists, most of whom are heterosexuals enlisted and indoctrinated to push the gay agenda
✘ forced association with the fringe population of homosexuals

Working-class Americans are Done with the Relentless Attacks on the Protestant Christian Origins of the USA and How Protestant Christians Made America the Greatest Sovereignty on Earth

Working-class Americans are Done with Mainstream Media Deception:

Working-class Americans are Done with Celebrities:

✘ moronic actors of Hollywood as the mouthpieces of both globalization and political correctness

Working-class Americans are Done with Government and Media Lying Propaganda about the Economy:

Working-class Americans are Done with World Figureheads like the Pope:


Working-class Americans are Done with False, Libertine Deception:

Working-class Americans are Done with Illegal Political candidates:

Working-class Americans are Done with Sellout Politicians:

Working-class Americans are Done with Establishment Politics:

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Friday, August 21, 2015

THERE STILL IS NOT A RECOVERY SEVEN YEARS LATER. HERE IS WHY, PARTLY

Economists seem slack-jawed to explain why there has been little in the way of a recovery after seven years of Bernanke-Yellen near zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) along with the crazed sum of cash accretion owing to Bernanke's failed academic exercise of Quantitative Easing.



As can be seen in these charts, in True Dollars™, disposable personal income is way down. Likewise, wages and salaries are way down.








And it should be no surprise that consumer credit has fallen as all credit in the has fallen substantially. That great deflation is resultant of the first cause, the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.






Most academician eggheads in the field of economics believe that many Americans paid off their debts in what they call merely a "recession,"  as if it were an ordinary recession. So these eggheads wonder why Americans aren't now spending since also they believe a recovery has been underway since 2009.

And these two charts say thousands of words. While both incomes and credit have fallen, Americans have taken on ever more credit to maintain semblance of the lifestyle they once enjoyed during the boom phase of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.






Consumer indebtedness has increased during the Greatest Depression. That should surprise no one. First Bernanke and then Yellen made borrowing cheaper than acquiring income. And as massive unemployment pushed wages downward, those with income falling at a slower than credit opted for credit to make up for their buying power shortfall.

Falling true incomes and rising true indebtedness is a recipe for disaster.

Many call the day after Thanksgiving in the USA, Black Friday, because it is the day retailers are supposed move from losses to beyond breakeven and thus enter black into their accounting ledgers rather than red for losses. Don't count on it this Christmas retail shopping season.  I wonder if bears plan to short major retailers soon.

It doesn't seem likely that Americans can take on much more debt prudently.

For more of why, check out ZIRPED! BERNANKE AND NOW YELLEN HAVE FELLED CAPITALISM. VOLKER WAS RIGHT ON HOW TO DO IT.

I happen to live in a fairly well-to-do city, which happens to be home to a big biotech firm. Since the Banking Crisis of 2008 and the subsequent reckoning of the Greatest Depression, even my city has been touched. Seedy massage parlors popped up all over the main shopping boulevard like festering sores. Some have taken to living in illegal RV parks hidden behind fences on larger parcels.

The Greatest Depression keeps rolling along.

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Friday, October 16, 2015

AMERICA'S GREATEST DEPRESSION. IT'S ON STILL. SEE THE PROOF!

Today, over at The True Dollar Journal I published a detailed work supported by a series of charts that proves definitively that Americans are still living through the Greatest Depression.

Also, in the work, I show why life has gotten ever worse for Americans not merely since the Banking Crisis of 2008 but for quite a long time before then.

If you like charts and want to prove to your friends and family what is the true state of the U.S. economy, check out Greatest Depression Still On. Americans Know Better. Obama Believes Americans are Idiots. Congress Lies To Seniors with the CPI. Personal Consumption Credit Has Ruined America.


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Wednesday, September 16, 2015

AWAKEN. YOU'RE LIVING THROUGH THE GREAT GLOBAL DEPRESSION. IT'S HERE, WORLDWIDE. I BET YOU DIDN'T KNOW IT.

The U.S. economy has yet to leave depression. Current dollar GDP is meaningless.

"Real" GDP is meaningless as well since to calculate it, government statisticians use an average ("the chain") of successive inflated current dollar GDPs to deflate the latest GDP. How is it possible to deflate something inflated by something else already inflated?

There are 69.8% more dollars in circulation today, August, 2015, than in June, 2008! That is what quantitative easing does. QE has papered over the ongoing losses.

Quantitative Easing means increasing negotiable bank credit in circulation — cash and checkable deposits so as to trick the public into believing the economy is growing through rising sticker prices expressed in current dollars.

Quantitative Easing works. QE has papered over the massive credit deflation undergone at banks. QE has papered over the Greatest Depression.

That is its purpose. QE is not intended to spur on an economy.


Current Dollars in Circulation from the Federal Reserve

Look at the angle of the curve from June, 2008. It started to bend toward vertical, which means growth has been moving toward infinite.

This is what US GDP looks like in True Dollars™ terms rather than bogus current dollars or the equally bogus real dollars:






My chart is the only accurate chart on US GDP produced by anyone, the earth over, as are all my GDP charts and every other chart I produce. Unless someone has a standard yardstick that can't grow or shrink, that one can't get an accurate measure.

Look at my chart closely. My chart conforms to everyone's experiences through the years precisely. No other GDP chart on earth can do that.

Because I use an invariant standard that conforms to scientific knowledge about commercial banking, my measures are accurate and reflect commercial reality. No one else on earth can make this claim, unless he or she were to copy my method.

In true terms measured in True Dollars™ rather than measured in current dollars or the equally fake "real GDP" terms — as that uses already-inflated averaged current dollar terms over successive periods as the deflator — the economy has shrunk in almost every quarter since hitting a peak in 2007.

Americans don't see this precisely because QE has papered over reality. Current dollar prices including wages are up. So Americans believe they have been living through a recovery and an advance when they have not in reality.

Americans think in current dollars. They don't think in buying power terms.
When credit falls, the economy must shrink.

The US economy has yet to leave the Greatest Depression.

I track GDP for 40 countries in True Dollars™ terms. Those 40 countries comprise 86.6% of World GDP. The world is in serious economic depression.

The top 15 countries comprise 75% of world GDP. In True Dollars™, which is the only way you can get accurate true GDP, quarter-over-quarter

• Australia is down -11.4%
• Brazil is down -8.9%
• Canada is down -4.4%
• China is down -1.0%
• France is down -9.0%
• Germany is down -8.7%
• India is down -2.1%
• Italy is down -9.3%
• Japan is down -3.6% [Japan hasn't stopped falling since 30-June 1995! It's now down almost -74% since then ]
• Mexico is down -2.9%
• Russia is down an eye-popping -39.4% owing to sanctions.
• Spain is down -8.7%
• The UK is down -7.5%
• The USA is -1.5%

The notable bright spot is Korea, up 0.4%

I'll share a link to these charts as well as my True Dollars™ price guides for ETFs, which show which ETFs are rising fastest over designated periods as soon as my server comes up. My ETF price guides are indispensable for anyone who speculates with ETFs.

As my ETF price guides are merely that, the guides do not constitute advice of any kind as to what to buy or to sell. Such decisions are the both the legal and technical responsibilities of those speculating.

That said, having my True Dollars™ ETF Price Guides likely is the closest anyone can ever get to having a crystal ball. It's like insurance so cheap that you don't need to question the pittance to acquire one.

The charts above for the USA are what the charts look like for the 40 countries I track and for which I produce GDP in True Dollars™

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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

THE TREND IN NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION LOOKS GOOD. AMERICANS STILL HAVE FAR TO GO.

I say it time and time again, data without context is meaningless. Why so many prognosticators get everything about the U.S. economy oh-so-wrong comes down to their looking at numbers without meaning.



Back on May 13, I published a piece, IS TRUE ECONOMIC GROWTH AT LONG LAST COMING SOON TO THE U.S. ECONOMY? MAYBE, in which I showed you charts of the much bettering employment situation along with a bettering S&P 500 in True Dollars™ terms.

Also on December 3, 2014 and December 4, 2014, I published two works along with charts that revealed my expectation of the economy and what I believed were the early stages of advance, and THE USA ECONOMY ADVANCE LIKELY HAS BEGUN AT LONG LAST and AT LONG LAST, BANKERS ARE ADVANCING CREDIT.

In between though, I published more than a few works with respective charts revealing the current depression state of the economy:
However, I published a slightly upbeat view on April 16, 2015, in CRAWLING FROM THE WRECKAGE INTO A BRAND NEW CAR, SLOWLY. AMERICAN CAR BUYING HAS COME BACK MUCH BUT NEEDS TO COME MORE.

And now I show you the state of New Residential Construction. The charts support both what likely was part of the early advance, the stall and now where we are today. Today, it looks like Americans still are struggling to get to the early stages of an advance.










This table shows it all.



There is far to go still to get to normalcy. The trend is heading toward normalcy, but likely it's more than a year off based on the slopes of those curves above. Perhaps the economy is two years off from normalcy based on the trends.

Ignore politicians. Ignore Yellen. Especially, ignore popular academician economists and their false dogma of economics.

Instead, listen to me.
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Thursday, May 7, 2015

OIL PRICES. GASOLINE PRICES. THE LOWS KEEP COMING. PRICES REFLECT THE GREATEST DEPRESSION REALITY.

On May 6, 2015, the USA Today published a work by Evan Kelly (Oilprice.com) who claims oil prices are up. Also, on the same day, the jokers at Reuters report that oil prices hit 2015 peaks today.

Such is the kind of foolery you can read everywhere published by mainstream media.  After removing the effects of inflation, prices are near ten-year lows. Prices are low because Americans still are living through an economic depression that continues to get worse.






































Be sure to check out the other recent works on the Greatest Depression still ongoing.
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Friday, May 29, 2015

TODAY'S ECONOMY IS THE SAME AS AMERICA IN 1975. Q1 2015 GDP REVISION.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis workers released the revised numbers to first quarter GDP. In the 21st century, one would expect that government workers could release GDP data monthly and not seasonally adjusted.

As no one uses money anymore — coined metal by weight and fineness — there is little cause to adjust data for seasonality. Gold and silver don't get shipped to "money center" banks by rural farm bankers to earn interest anymore. As there is no money, that kind of banking hasn't existed for tens of decades. Thus, there isn't a seasonality effect in the economy anymore.

Well, GDP has now fallen to about what it was for the first quarter of 1975 during the Greatest Depression.



The change in True GDP as measured in True Dollars™ is quite revealing. All who have lived through these years know how accurate the chart tracks good times and bad times.

Yet, because of the power of persuasion-in-propaganda and peer pressure effects of crowds, most today, believe they have been living in an economic recovery, albeit a slow one, merely because they have heard that sermon repeatedly and are afraid to believe otherwise.

The propaganda isn't true. Americans have been living in the Greatest Depression after having lived through the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind.



The year-over-year change yields a much clearer picture. The economy is bettering but hasn't recovered. Not until the line crosses over the zero mark can anyone claim the economy has recovered.


And while the economy crashed after the Banking Crisis of 2008, an inevitable crisis brought on by the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the signs of trouble arose by Q2 2006. In spite of claims to the contrary, the last decent economic run Americans experienced began Q2 1994 and ended Q4 2000, with the best of those times ending Q1 1997.

The worst action Federal Reserve central bankers could have done, they did. They did so precisely because Fed Res bankers don't understand capitalism and how capitalism works, at all.

Rather than cut interest rates to near zero and engage in Quantitative Easing, the truest definition of voodoo economics, Fed Res bankers ought to have pushed interest rates higher faster. Cutting rates impaired extant capital bought on credit by enterprisers who operated prudently. To maintain return on capital, such enterprisers were forced to do the only act they could, cut labor.

Meanwhile, even at low rates, new entrants could not come into markets, borrowing credit to buy new capital and thus put Americans to work since even at those low rates, returns to any new capital could not materialize. In short, if Americans aren't workers and thus lack wages, they can't buy goods and services at prices needed to gain returns to capital.

Academician economists with their phony doctrine of economics are quite wrong. Fed Res central bankers have been quite wrong. Congressmen, whether House members or Senators, have been quite clueless.

The true fixes likely never will happen.
  1. Fed Res bankers need to be stripped of their power to set the inter-bank lending rate (Fed Funds Rate) as such a rate is the basis for commercial lending rates.

    Such bankers lack omniscience. They don't know what commercial rates ought to be.

    Instead, rates ought to be set in futures markets. Futures markets are why Americans never starve and never run out of energy.
  2. Congressional-backed mortgage securities need to end, which means so-called Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) such as Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) need to be shuttered.

    Bankers need risk. With the advent of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) guaranteed by successive U.S. Congresses, bankers have lost their bearings and have become imprudent in the practice of banking.

    MBS worked for bankers as the source of structured investment to pay off deposits until such didn't anymore. Think about the perversity of it all.

    Bankers sell credit to borrowers and buy rights of action against borrowers called mortgages. Then bankers sell those rights to U.S. Congresses through their GSE agencies. After bundling mortgages into securities, GSEs sell those MBS to bankers, effectively selling back to bankers the mortgages they originated, but now with risk to bankers stripped out.
  3. By constitutional amendment, all legislators need their taxing authority severely limited. No American should be forced to pay more than 10% to 12% of her or his income in total to all levels of legislators.

    By significantly restricting taxation authority, legislators would have their borrowing capacity restricted significantly.  Thus, legislating would become challenging.

    Each year, there should be contentious fighting by members of the House and Senate as to what gets funded and by how much. Thus, only the most important legislation with the greatest effect for the most people, if not all, should be debated.

    And the same thing should happen in the states and the counties.

    Legislation should be hard to come by. Everything should be a contentious fight among legislators. Legislating should be a pain-in-the-ass, a hard job, so hard that only the most important issues should be debated and decided upon. It should be so hard that only the most tenacious and thoughtful persons should be attracted to do the work.
  4. Working-age immigration needs to be restricted, likely for decades. If Americans want their wages to rise in True Dollars and thus experience a rise in buying power, they must awaken to reality and agitate for restricted immigration, say to no more than 5% of  total population each year.

    Wages and capital are interlinked. Wages are a consequence of producing wealth under efficiency. The more wealth produced and gained by each worker, the higher wages can rise.

    High capital spending causes high wages. Wages rise when capital spending per worker rises.

    Only in proportion as labor becomes pricier that it becomes profitable to use cheaper methods (capital) to amplify labor. Capital spending arises because of likely increasing returns to capital.

    Labor becomes pricier only under a dearth of workers. When there is an abundance of workers, labor is cheap.

    Heed my dictum. Labor makes property. Capital makes property efficiently. 

    Capital becomes a factor in production only if in using capital, workers can produce property in stock or in work cheaper than by producing property in those things without capital. Without capital, there is little reason to organize workers. Without capital, everyone lives at bare subsistence.

    Before the industrial era, almost all Americans were poor, barely living above bare subsistence poverty. Almost all were farmers who traded little.  Farmers had little capital. There were hand tools and maybe a few plow horses.

    The few "wealthy" Americans were those involved in shipping. Ships of shipping, of course, are capital.

    Under the automation of industrialism, true wages or "real" wages if said by economists rose and rose substantially. As Americans added machinery, which, of course, is capital, workers' buying power as expressed in true pay rose.
Both excessive immigration and suppressed interest rates gut the return to capital. Such policies wreck capitalism. The U.S. Congress wrecks the return to capital by expanding immigration and doing nothing about illegal aliens. Fed Res Bankers wreck the return to capital by engaging in Near Zero Interest Rate Policy (N-ZERP).

If Americans desire to live in a golden age, like Americans of the past, say between the 1950s and 1960s, they need to return to living by capitalism. That means the fixes above must happen.

I'm right. Guys like Peter Schiff are right, intuitively, most times, except guys like Peter Schiff don't have the numbers to back up their claims. I do.







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Sunday, May 18, 2014

CATCH AMERICA NOW, IT'S FALLING. THE GREAT COLLAPSE OF AMERICA HAPPENING RIGHT BEFORE YOUR EYES

Already I've have show you this chart:

And this chart, which shows the Greatest Depression ever suffered by Americans, six years running now.


But first, if you need to read about FRBUs, check out INFLATION REVEALED! "REAL GDP" AND FEDERAL RESERVE BANK UNITS. 
Now I want you to see these:

In the above, you can see how many dollars worth of GDP gets produced relative to a dollar's worth of total bank credit.

 As you can see, recession happened between 1972 and 1974, with resumption of the 1971 leverage through the years 1976 to 1985. Leverage shrank a bit and found a new level between 1987 and 1996.

 Since 1996, GDP to credit leverage has fallen from $2.28 at the end of the second quarter in 1996 hitting a low of $1.56 at the low of the Greatest Depression between 2008 and 2009, Since then GDP to credit leverage seems to have found a new low level.

 This is what the "new normal" is all about.

Here you can see that when the economy runs, credit runs as fraction of GDP, lifting GDP. In 2004 featured the death cross moment.

 Perhaps this is why politicians distract Americans with silliness de jour whether the Ukraine, gay marriage, Keystone XL or what have you.
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Friday, June 5, 2015

WHERE HAS LIVING BEEN BEST SINCE THE GREENSPAN-BERNANKE GREAT INFLATION, PEAK GDP AND THE GREATEST DEPRESSION?

Today, I did some sleuthing. Using income per resident, age 16 and up, expressed in True Dollars™, I compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia to see what Americans have weathered the Greatest Depression storm the best.

While I am not going to put up all 51 curve charts plotting per capita income for each state and DC, I shall present to you a few tables.

The first table shows the change in income per head from various dates in the past.



Nevada has been the best place to live since Peak GDP merely because Nevadans enjoyed the smallest decline in income per resident expressed in True Dollars™.




The second table shows how the states rank by changes in income as expressed in the percents above.



It fails to surprise that car making country — Michigan and Ohio sit at the bottom. Also, who wouldn't expect high-tax states like New York and Illinois to be  near the bottom. It surprises that residents of upstate New York continue to pay taxes to feed the residents of New York City. Likewise, it seems the residents of Chicago have the rest of Illinoisans held hostage.

The third table shows how the states rank by income per head at Peak GDP in True Dollars™, Q4 2007, and for the latest report (Q3 2014 as of this writing). Also, the table reveals the per cap income percentile for each state.

This table can give you an idea in which states living is declining and in which states living is improving.



For any state, if the number in the second column is larger than the number in the first column, living is worsening in that state.





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Wednesday, June 10, 2015

MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE REPORT, JUNE 2015. THE GREATEST DEPRESSION CONTINUES ...

The minions at the U.S. Census Bureau released their Monthly Wholesale Trade Report for June 2015, which details activity through April 2015.

Like most other reports, once adjusted for True Dollars™, the Wholesale Trade Report reveals an economy in decline.

Today, one of the not-so-smartest-guys-in-the-room-afterall, Jamie Dimon has been quoted as saying Elizabeth Warren, the law-school egghead cum U.S. Senator doesn't understand the global banking system. Likely, he is right. I've read some words attributed to Warren. She doesn't understand much of reality.

That said, Dimon doesn't understand capitalism, at all. Quantitative Easing has been a disaster for the economy and for capitalism.

When too much credit gets extended, the right action, the action absent intervention is rising interest rates.

You can think of rising interest rates as raising the stakes in poker. Weak hands and the gutless get forced to fold. Only the strongest survive in poker.

The same is with the economy. Those who built businesses upon capital structures paid with credit on expected rising prices that never materialize need  to fold and go out of business.

Rising rates protects profitable extant capital structures, structures of efficiency that can earn profits on falling prices.

However, artificially lowering interest rates, which is what Quantitative Easing does, and is the policy action of Dimon's employees, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, wrecks the return to extant capital. To restore the expected needed return, firms fire workers. This is what happened all during Quantitative Easing.

QE is the worst policy action in the history of commercial banking. It has been the worst policy for Americans, perhaps all-time. It's perpetuating the Greatest Depression.




From last month, there are a few bright spots like Lumber and Construction Materials, Beer and Booze, Oil Products and other Non-durable Goods. Yet, that could reflect the upcoming summer season of deck parties and road trips.











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Wednesday, June 4, 2014

IT'S A RECESSION IN A DEPRESSION! RECESSION COMES TO AMERICANS LIVING DURING THE GREATEST DEPRESSION EVER

Back on Thursday, May 22, 2014, I wrote IT'S LOOKING LIKE MORE RECESSION IN THE U.S.A. IN 2014 based on steel production flattening and the slight downturn in starts for new housing units, which already are at historic lows of Q1 1982 and Q1 1991.

 Here are the inescapable facts as measured in True Dollars™ and various ETFs:
  • The price of copper is down 71.8% from its Q2 2011 peak (First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF)
  • The price of steel is down 72.8% from its Q4 2007 peak (Market Vectors ETF)
  • The price of timber is down 37.6% from its Q4 2007 peak (Guggenheim Timber ETF)
  • The price of house builders stock is down 60.8% from its Q4 2006 peak (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF)
  • The price of aluminum is down 57.6% from its Q2 2008 peak (iPath Pure Beta Aluminum ETN)
  • The price of nickel is down 49.4% from its Q2 2008 peak (iPath Pure Beta Nickel ETN)
  • The price of gasoline is down 46.1% from its Q2 2008 peak (US Commodities Funds ETF)

See the charts from the Bizarro Theater Dashboard!



It should be clear by now that Ben Bernanke and his theories about both FDR's Great Depression as well as central banking are quite wrong. Any right-minded sane man or woman can describe Bernanke's Quantitative Easing with one phrase only — abject failure.
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Friday, July 31, 2015

2015 Q2 GDP REPORT FROM THE BEA, ANOTHER REPORT AND ANOTHER BIG LIE.

Once again, workers at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of Congress, have lied to Americans. According to these minions of Congress,

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent (revised).
The BEA jokers say "Real" GDP is up 2.3%. But they use a previous inflated GDP to deflate the current GDP. How can something currently inflated be deflated by something also inflated?

How does that work? It doesn't. It can't, ever.

Meanwhile, true GDP as measured in True Dollars™, which is the only legitimate way to account for inflation, has declined yet again. Year over year, true GDP is down -4.4%. Quarter over quarter, true GDP is down -1.8%.

The Greatest Depression continues, first brought to you by the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind, followed by the Bernanke-Yellen Quantitative Easing, the greatest capital killer in the history of mankind.







Since Q1 1959, this is the state of economy with respect to quarters up or down and streaks of true growth or true decline.

The USA economy has never been this bad for this long since 1959. Why should anyone expect anything else? Americans experienced the greatest inflation — rise in bank credit — in the history of mankind between 1994 and 1997. Americans have been experiencing reckoning ever since.

GDP is now down -6.3% below the Bill Clinton Q1 1994 low. OBAMA AND HIS CONGRESSES HAVE STEERED AMERICA INTO A 1975 FORD ERA ECONOMY.




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Wednesday, July 22, 2015

A GHOST FROM 1888 REVEALS THE FUTURE OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY

Back in 1888, The Knickerbocker Press published a work by Roderick Henry Smith titled, The Science of Business a Study of the Principles Controlling the Laws of Exchange. Smith completed the work in July, 1885. And yes, you read that date right. These aren't typos or mental errors on my part.



The first two chapters yield much entertainment. Smith piles on a litany of examples to show that things in motion take paths of least resistance and that many things move in cycles, though Smith called such movement smaller rhythms within larger rhythms. It is from these two claimed principles that Smith attempts to build his argument.

Smith opens with this:




In the third chapter, Smith wrote,






Later in the chapter, Smith delivered this gem:



So, after breezing through Smith's work, I began googling for data for counts on firms and failures so that I might construct a time series of survival-to-failure ratio and plot the results. Alas, that data can't be had anywhere.

The best I could find is the something the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW reports a count of employment and wages reported by employers to State unemployment insurance programs comprising 98% of wage and salary civilian employment in the country.

The QCEW doesn't have counts of firms nor does it have counts of failures. The worst bit, there is almost six months lag from the end of a quarter to the release of its respective data! That is so laggy to be almost useless.

However, the QCEW does have something — establishment counts! Establishment counts can stand in as a proxy as firm counts since every year for decades now, the ratio of establishments to firms has increased.

An establishment gets defined as single economic unit, such as a farm, a mine, a factory, or a store, that produces goods or services. Establishments exist at one physical location and engaged in one, or predominantly one, type of economic activity for which a single industrial classification may be applied.

OK, let's look at some pictures. First up, let's look at the quarterly change in all establishments.





If we keep in mind what Smith claimed — "the percentage number of failures to the year has been found to be always greater in the first quarter of the year than in the last three..." — we might hit on something useful.

As can be seen at the far left, the economy experienced a mild recession leading up to the heinous anti-American terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, the recession that Greenspan refused to let deepen.

The net change to Q1 2002 was -5,536 establishments. Greenspan then more than doubled up in his quest to set off the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.

As you can see after Greenspan acted to cut rates repeated, a growth happened in Q1 establishments all the way through 2006.

The massive drop of -50,348 at Q1 2007 should have been the canary in the coalmine. And had I known about the QCEW, I could have told Americans in September 2007 that peak GDP was coming — it did by the end of Q4 2007 — and that a stock crash would happen — it did by March 6, 2009. As it is, the Q1 2008 net change of -45,789, confirmed the previous year's disastrous number.

There is another thing to notice about this graph. This graph confirms what I've been telling you for awhile, we're living in the Greatest Depression. Every net change in the Q1 establishment count from 2009 through 2014 has been negative. There is no way there can be true growth in GDP when Q1 net change in establishment counts is negative year-over-year, consistently.

Academician economists teach a false doctrine about what they call "real GDP," by which they mean trying to deflate current dollar GDP with past inflated GDP. It still shocks that few see the absurdity in that feebleness.

However, when GDP gets expressed in True Dollars™, you can see the reality of declining true GDP. The graph above supports perfectly the GDP graph below. And it is for the ongoing decline in True GDP confirmed by horrible first quarter numbers in the net change in establishments that keep Janet Yellen from doing anything about interest rates, quite likely.



Now, let's take a look at a few others.

There is two ways you could look at this chart. One way is to see that American manufacturing has been a depression for a long time. Yet, another way is to see that American manufacturing needs ever fewer establishments.  To be sure, the Q1 2014 positive net change number is the first time that has happened in at least 13 years.



Q1 2007 and Q1 2008 net changes in establishment counts for construction  also acted as canaries. It's likely crucial for the Q1 2015 number to come in positive.



The Information sector is leading the recovery. It should be clear that Information sector suffered for a long time from the Dot Com Bubble blow up.



And here is the chart that makes me believe the economy is going to shift into higher gears soon. Positive financial activity must come before major advance as all advances arise from the expansion of credit.



Well, we must await until mid-September for those Q1 numbers. And yes, this stuff is genius.

Say, you can hire me. If you need a C-level strategy guy who can see stuff you can't, email now.

 
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Thursday, March 19, 2015

YELLEN. THE FED, THE LIES, THE FAKE RECOVERY. 46 MILLION NEEDY AMERICANS STILL NEED FOOD STAMPS.

In spite of everything you see peddled by Janet Yellen, news reporters and others, the economy is not growing. In fact, it's still shrinking.



Janet Yellen and her yes men are trying to manipulate public opinion. In short, she wants all to believe that she is in charge and could raise the Fed Funds Rate while at the same time suggesting a slow pace for raising rates.



By count, there are twice as many Americans who would be starving, perhaps to death, without food stamps welfare given to them by Congress, as the 1996 to 2007 peak credit average. As a percent of population, there are almost twice as many (1.9 times) as Americans who need their bellies filled by SNAP food stamp purchases today compared to the 1996 to 2007 peak credit average.


Food stamp neediness has hit a permanent plateau since April 2011. Until food stamp neediness by Americans falls to about 7.69% of total population, no one should talk about a settled economy, a strong economy, or any other foolery.

There hasn't been any recovery in what has been shaping up to be the longest depression in American history after the Greenspan-Bernanke Bubble, the biggest banking credit bubble in the history of mankind. How could Yellen and her buddies raise rates on a shrinking economy with a mass of needy Americans who would starve without welfare food put into their bellies?

We're still living in the Greatest Depression, Americans.





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Friday, August 28, 2015

Q2 2015 GDP FIRST REVISION. THE FICTION OF 3.7% "REAL" ANNUAL GDP GROWTH

Minions at the Bureau of Economic Analysis claim that real gross domestic product is now growing at an annual rate of 3.7% as measured in Q2 2015 after a statistical revision from a number published a month ago. Their claim is pure fiction.

These minions deflate current GDP using a past inflated GDP. Ask yourself, how could that work, logically?

True GDP expressed in True Dollars™ tells an altogether different story. As you can see in the chart, True GDP is down -1.5% for the quarter and -4.4% year over year.




The only growth to be seen is growth in inventories. No one should want a growth in their inventories in a just-in-time world.

Mark my words. Black Friday is going to expose all of the phony numbers published by agencies of Congress, like the Commerce Department's BEA. In True Dollars™, total consumer credit relative to disposable personal income is too high. I shared the chart for that with you in THERE STILL IS NOT A RECOVERY SEVEN YEARS LATER. HERE IS WHY, PARTLY.





Americans continue to live in the Greatest Depression. Likely, there is world wide depression as the Chinese have now entered recession as I have shared in Q2 2015 CHINESE GDP REVEALS THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING. THE CHINA MIRACLE HAS COME TO AN END.





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Monday, January 25, 2016

WORKING-CLASS AMERICANS ARE FED UP. IT'S FAILED INTERNATIONALISM, STUPID. WHY TRUMP IS WINNING, PART 2.




Too many members of the political class have pontificated as to why Donald Trump is trouncing everyone in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries.

Americans rightly see this election for what it is. Americans rightly see the USA slipping away past the point of no return to the failing doctrine of internationalism.

  1. excessive immigration 
  2. unstopped illegal immigration 
  3. trade deals that gutted manufacturing industry and thus wiped out high-paying jobs for no-college-degree high school grads who could have bought houses as their factory parents and grandparents did before them

Working-class Americans are weary of politicians lying to them for 22 years about 1, 2 and 3.

In a word, working-class Americans are done with internationalism.To working-class Americans, internationalism leads to job losses, lower income and terrorism. And they're right!

In WHY TRUMP IS WINNING. THE REST ARE INTERNATIONALIST SELLOUTS WHO STAND AGAINST WORKING-CLASS AMERICANS, I spelled out this case in greater detail. And in AMERICANS ARE COMMITTING (ECONOMIC) SUICIDE DAILY WITH IPHONES AND IPADS, I show why the rhetoric behind trade deals doesn't live up to the economic reality for working-class Americans.

Obama and his Congresses have done much to continue the trashing of the USA with Obamacare, protection of illegal aliens, immigration of Mohammadans ("Muslims") who hate Americans, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would kill even more American manufacturing and so forth (see: TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP OF ESTABLISHMENT INTERESTS TO SCREW YOU OVER and 365 DAYS TILL OBAMA'S REMOVAL. WHAT HAS OBAMA'S PRESIDENCY MEANT? WHO HAS OBAMA BEEN?).


Americans have been living in an economic depression since peak GDP way back at the of 2007. And Americans know it!

I have provided the only truthful data in graph form on this at my commerce and economy site, The True Dollar Journal: OBAMA, YELLEN, BERNANKE AND MANY OTHERS HAVE LIED, SOVIET-STYLE ABOUT THE FALSE RECOVERY, COUNTLESS TIMES. YOU ARE STILL LIVING IN THE GREATEST DEPRESSION.


I told the world months ago why Trump slays the competition when I compared Trump to Margaret Thatcher: A BRILLIANT LADY AND WHY DONALD TRUMP IS MOST POPULAR WITH AMERICANS. You can watch Lady Thatcher talk from the embedded video there. Here is some of what she said.

“But you see, for years now in British politics, this word, you [Americans] must use it — consensus — has reared its head. You must have a consensus.
“It's a word again, you use not to use when I first came in politics. We had convictions. And we tried to persuade people that our convictions were the right ones.
“And it is no good to have convictions unless you have the will to translate those convictions into actions.  But politics was more if you had convictions than a matter of multiple maneuverings to get through the problems of the day.  
“I often think that when you are going for consensus so often it means that those who believe as I believe tend to give in to the left wing and you move steadily further and further left.” ~ Margaret Thatcher 

Americans are tired of the Gutless Opposition Party run by neoconservatives giving in to the left.

And if you never learned it, the neoconservatives are ex-Democratic Party, ex-socialist leftists who switched sides to the Republicans for one reason only — their undying Zionism support for Israel — because of one force only — demographics. These long-time Democrats were being squeezed out of the Democratic Party machinery by women, blacks and Hispanics.

It's always about demographics.


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Thursday, May 22, 2014

PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR YEARS! INFLATION? MAJOR DEFLATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY SINCE 2007. SO WHY DOES LIFE SEEM HARDER? THE ANSWERS ARE COMING NEO.

In THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX NEVER HAS MEASURED INFLATION, EVER. CLAIMING SO HAS BEEN A EPIC CON JOB, I show how the  "the most widely used measure of inflation," the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fails to measure inflation precisely because those behind it measure prices and not inflation. 

 The worst is the jokers at the BLS who conjure the CPI measure current inflated prices by a base of past inflated prices. Stop. Think about that for a moment.

 With their failed method, they cannot eliminate the effects of inflation. In short, the CPI is bunco.

Milton Friedman was a famed economist, popular writer and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics back in 1976. Friedman is famous in egghead circles for having said:
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." 

Edwin Walter Kemmerer was a famed economist, a man known as "the money doctor." Kemmerer said this about inflation:





Friedman and Kemmerer point the way. Here is the Red Pill that you must swallow if you want to free yourself from the silly, false belief of rising prices means inflation. 

 You must come to see that you do not have money. No one does. 

Instead, you have Federal Reserve Bank Units (FRBUs), or if you like better, Federal Reserve Buying Units. FRBUs are what pay for goods. All goods get priced in FRBUs. 

 Money is coined metal by weight and fineness. Always, money can exist without banking and government. Cash only can exist with banking and banks. Legal tender cash needs banking backed by the force of government.

 In the fiduciary monetary system of centralized bank notes, inflation is merely the growth of the circulating media — cash, which is evidence of past deposits circulating in perpetuity and bank credit in the form of checkable deposits transferred by bank instruments such as checks and debit cards.

Thus, to know reality and escape the Matrix requires you to account for inflation by FRBUs and by no other way. The FRBU deflator is our red pill to see reality. 

INFLATION FIRST, THEN DEFLATION ALWAYS. 

Inflation happened already. That is what led to the banking crisis of 2008.

 The damaging effects of inflation become revealed when the growth of credit outstrips the growth of output owing to credit being priced too cheap. Banking crises always happen at peak inflation right in the midst of prosperity.

 Have a look at true credit and true GDP.




Since 2008, true bank credit has been falling. True GDP has fallen right along with the fall in bank credit. The fall of bank credit means deflation has been underway. 

True bank credit is down -43.4% from peak credit at the start of Q2, 2008. True Credit has been falling at an annualized rate of -9.1%.

True GDP has been falling and falling. True GDP is down -42.8% from the peak! True GDP has been falling at an annualized rate of -8.9%!

 That's a trade depression. Look at it. I call it the Greatest Depression.

AND FALLING PRICES, IT'S TRUE


 So let's have a look at true prices, shall we? Prices have been falling for decades since before peak credit. 

 Say what?! Yes, it's true. Once the effects of accretion of FRBUs get removed using the FRBU deflator, we get true, inflation-free prices. 

 First let's look at food and energy.



It's no wonder chief bankers at the Federal Reserve exclude food and energy from their watch. Yet, always, you hear many decry that your friendly neighborhood Fed Res bankers ignore food and energy prices.

Now, let's look at house prices. 
House prices went on quite the roller coaster ride between 1980 and 2013. Yet, the average price for a house today is lower than in 1980 by 36%! 

 Interestingly, the average house price to income has averaged $6.63. The 2012 ratio of $6.44 is under 3% from the average.

 Yet, there is a fly in the ointment, which I shall get to soon, the fly on the wall that explains why you suffer.

 But first, here is the ugliness that many Americans understand. Tuition prices have risen a whopping 85% since 1980!



WHY MISERY IF PRICES ARE FALLING?


 So why do Americans feel so miserable and claim to be broken financially? Well, there is good reason for that too.

 A wage is a price and as all prices have been falling, so too have wages fallen.


The average wage has fallen 41% since 1980!


So why have true wages fallen? All should heed my dictum:
Labor makes property. Capital makes property efficiently.

THE CHART SOCIALISTS AND POLITICIANS DON'T WANT YOU TO SEE



True wages have fallen in lockstep with true capital spending per capita of prime age working adults (25-54). Wages and capital are interlinked.

Trading wealth as property in cash and credit in a purchase and sale for wealth as property in things determines the extent of markets. Only in proportion as labor becomes pricier that it becomes profitable to use cheaper methods (capital) to amplify labor.

 There are no means by which living standards can better that do not involve the increase in wealth per capita of prime age workers. Increasing returns to capital arise when true wages go up. To discover how to make increasing returns to capital is to solve the problems of poverty and lowering living standard. 

As can be seen here, the growth in prime age working adults in America has been tremendous, up 45.3% since 1980.



And not-so-coincidentally, wages have fallen 41% and capital spending has fallen 49.5%!



Born-again socialism revivalist preachers like Thomas Piketty who attack wealth simply do not understand trade and commercial life at all. 

 Having more wealth is what makes all better off. More wealth comes from more efficient production. More efficient production comes from more capital.  More capital spending per worker raises wages. 

While the living standard in America has been falling, the living standard for Chinese has been rising. Why is that? There has been more capital spending per worker in China since the Chinese turned capitalist.

It's the same story everywhere.
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